Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Lyon is battling for a Champions League spot next season and probably needs a win to get it sitting fourth in Ligue 1, a point behind Lille and two up on Rennais. So a draw might be enough, too, but the guys won't know that with all matches being played simultaneously on the final day. Lyon has only lost three of its 16 Ligue 1 home fixtures, winning 12. Lyon has allowed just 14 total goals in those 16 matches. Wish Draw No Bet was reasonable but it's around -340. Lens is second and won't move from that spot win or lose, so not a heck of a lot of motivation.
Yeah we will go again on the Braves and hope their manager stays out of the dang way this time. The Red Sox surely will not have unhittable closer Aroldis Chapman available as he has pitched in three games since Wednesday including the past two. Starting pitcher Brayan Bello has a 7.11 road ERA. The Atlanta pen has basically everyone available behind meh Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.35 ERA).
Trying to hold my tongue here but a couple of utterly ridiculous managerial decisions just hammered me Saturday. What Atlanta's Walt Weiss did ... I'm baffled. Just utter stupidity, man, and I haven't managed since Little League. I thought Rays manager Kevin Cash made a horrible 10th inning decision as well in Saturday's loss, but I give him the benefit of the doubt. A 12:15 game at the Trop on a gorgeous Florida Sunday. Crickets and gators, holmes. Will be empty unless there is an early-bird Cocoon-type special ($4.99 chicken-fried steak with peas, sweet taters and an apricot dessert; gross), so the only home-field edge will be batting last. Sad they play in that mausoleum because it should be a great baseball outdoors day.
I have no idea who wins this game to be clear. Anyone who says they do is lying. Thought Montreal had taken control but then laid a home egg in Game 4 only to win Game 5 on the road. Buffalo has a goaltending problem. Again. That's really all this is. And the Habs are home, and I badly want them to advance. Hockey is more interesting with a Canadian team in the Final Four. And I might have to fly to Montreal if it makes the Cup Final. Might be my last chance this lifetime to see a Cup game there. Probably have to trade a kidney for a ticket but have a spare. So if any of you are up yonder, eh ....
Was kinda holding off to see how the Marlins-Rays game paid out but that's still going so will have to just hit the button (looks like Rays gonna lose sadly). We played the Braves on Friday because they crush lefties. They actually didn't do that great against Boston's Connelly Early but they won, and I don't care how they get the result. That facing a second straight one in rookie Payton Tolle only helps in my opinion. The Boston lineup is just bad against Bryce Elder (4-1, 1.81 ERA).
The Rays are on just a crazy heater and part of that is journeyman Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.70 ERA) pitching way better than he actually is. But that's what the Rays do, man, they turn these nobodies into excellent players, trade them at their peak for prospects (always win those trades) and then they stink again with the new team or get hurt. Just such a smart organization. If they had any resources at all, they'd be a Dodgers-like superpower. I don't love fading ex-Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins but cheap price and SA hasn't been quite the same since a hot start. He's 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA away.
I didn't know the rather unique Bundesliga relegation rules until my friend and long-time SL subscriber Ed explained it to me on our Discord. Long story short, St. Pauli has reason to care in the finale as it could climb as high as third-to-last (16th). The bottom two in the league are kicked. Third-to-last enters a two-legged playoff against the third-place team from Zeitgeist 2 or whatever the lower-tier league is called for the final spot in next season's Bundesliga. Wolfsburg is in the same position but has a fairly large list of guys out. A draw works just fine for me and might be enough for Wolfsburg to finish in 16th as it holds all tiebreakers currently. St. Pauli can't afford a draw.
Atlanta is 13-3 vs. lefties this season (No. 6 in OPS against them) and faces Red Sox southpaw rookie Connelly Early, who has been quite good. Boston's best reliever is closer Aroldis Chapman, but No. 2 is setup man Garrett Whitlock and I doubt he's available after pitching the past two games. Might matter in the bottom of the eighth. Atlanta's Spencer Strider has looked solid in his two starts back from yet another injury. He dominated the Dodgers in LA last time out.
I see how high this is and I'm paying a ton for insurance, but I don't really understand why +1.5 is being offered to me. Pitchers: Janson Junk vs. Jesse Scholtens. Yeah, OK. The Rays are the way better team, rolling for the most part and were off Thursday. Feels like they should be -130ish. The Marlins, well, are none of those things. I'd like to say this is a heated rivalry but that sorta thing does not exist in Florida outside of college football. #wideright
Thought the Cavs had a better roster than the Pistons anyways and now they have a chance to finish at home. Ideally, James Harden calls in sick (Beard not a great track record in elimination games), but Cleveland has been dominant at home for months. Detroit is terrible at 3-point shooting anyways and without Duncan Robinson even worse. He missed Game 5 and iffy for Game 6. I'm not sure it matters because while D-Rob can shoot, he's a massive defensive liability. Basically me. The Pistons need to get Giannis this offseason. Then they'd be fun.
I will miss the EPL as it winds down for the season. Starting to get the ups and downs of that league. Both sides lock in Champions League spots for next season with a win. The Reds have a gazillion player availability questions under a possible lame-duck manager. I love British headlines. Liverpool manager Arne Slot "Might Survive the Sack." Might we all. The Brits just know how to talk (After Life, Fleabag, Catastrophe, early Black Mirror). Home finale for Villa. Draw works just fine.
Captain Mark Stone is out again for Vegas, which is also down top-pair blueliner Brayden McNabb due to one-game suspension for a questionable hit in Game 5. Stone has 18 career points in 25 potential series-clinching games like this. Come on Ducks, it's all there for the taking to force a Game 7. Anaheim is 4-1 at home in these playoffs and averaging 4.40 goals per game at the Duck Pond -- if they still call it that.
The Redcoats are coming! The White Sox are coming! Good for the Pale Hose, they are .500 past the quarter-pole and moving a bit ahead of schedule in the rebuild. Enjoying it. And the books keep undervaluing them. Often like to play 3 MLB games per day, figuring if I split the first two I can still finish up on the third. Alas, the two afternoon ones not so good. But rule applies. Also why only doing half-units. I'll switch over after Memorial Day. Then you generally know what teams are. As a home dog, the ChiSox are 12-6 ATS.
No Cal Raleigh for Seattle; he's having a rough year but did appear to just break out of his slump and is always capable of a two-homer game. End of a trip for the M's and starting pitcher Luis Castillo (0-4, 6.57 ERA) has been struggling badly for some reason. The Astros hammered him about a month ago. Seattle has played a whopping 17 one-run games, most of anyone in the majors. That's all I'm looking for -- either direction works for me.