Matt's Picks (2 Live)
The Sharks were a nice story for a while but have fallen off a cliff with six straight losses to all but end any West wild-card hopes. They are four games under .500 away, and this is the end of a trip. Columbus is right in the middle of the East playoff chase and terrific at home with only eight regulation losses. The Jackets have points in 12 straight home games, tying a franchise record. Overall, Columbus is 20-4-4 since Jan. 11 and leads the NHL in points percentage (.786) in that span.
Very fair price at +1.5 -- cheaper than Red Sox money line. That's something I'll almost always do on a home team that isn't terrible. And Cincinnati should be pretty solid. Our model has Boston 5.2-4.7. The Reds' Brady Singer was much better at home in 2025. It's the Red Sox debut of former Reds righty Sonny Gray, and three Cincy batters in particular have great career splits off him in Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez and Spencer Steer. Gray had an ERA near 5.00 this spring.
This game was not in my plans, but the Rangers have scratched Jacob deGrom so now we will -- this is the new number, but it might keep ticking up a bit. We get a different Jacob in Latz. Solid reliever and part-time starter in 2025 but was raked this spring for 16 runs in 15.1 innings. Philly's Aaron Nola pitched really well for Team Italy in the WBC as he looks to put a disappointing 2025 season behind him. Half-unit as I didn't much like this before the pitching change. Not sure yet what to make of the Phillies after missing out on Bo Bichette when they thought they had him.
I may fade the Twins in some form a good 75 times this season if they are as bad as I think they might be. Just five hits and one run in Thursday's opening loss. Baltimore wasn't that much better offensively, but there's a major drop-off from Twins No. 1 pitcher Joe Ryan (likely traded this year) to Friday's Taj Bradley. He was 0-2 with a 6.61 ERA in six starts with the club in 2025 after coming over from Tampa Bay. Fair amount of Orioles have good if limited splits off him. New O's closer Ryan Helsley was lights out in the opener and may have solved one glaring 2025 weakness. Baltimore not to bat B9 is a fine cheaper alternative.
I like the Blue Jays again today but not at -190. We don't yet have -1 or "don't bat bottom of nine" props or I would likely play one of those on Toronto. But this is a nice price on new addition Dylan Cease, always a workhorse. He was up to 83 pitches in his spring finale and great all during Grapefruit League play with a 0.93 ERA. It's all about control for Cease. If he has it, lights out. He will go at least five today barring a ton of walks. A's starter Jeffrey Springs was ripped in his lone start in Toronto last year and the Jays were good vs. southpaws overall. Half-unit as pretty much all my player props will be.
The winds are blowing out about 10 mph at Wrigley today, so I expect the Cubbies to put up a crooked number against well-past-his-prime Nats starter Miles Mikolas. Leadoff hitter Michael Busch was terrific in the opening loss at 3-for-4 with two runs scored and a walk. He's more than capable of simply hitting one out in B1 to cash this immediately as Busch is 6-for-15 career with a walk (.438 OBP) and three homers off Mikolas. The model essentially gives Busch a 68% shot of scoring a run and that's about -213 on the moneyline so some value in that regard.
This will go up probably 20-25 cents by Saturday early puck drop as massive disappointment Florida is shutting guys down left and right with the playoffs a pipe dream at this point. The mini-dynasty is finished. The Islanders need every point they can get for an East playoff spot and already have confirmed No. 1 Ilya Sorokin in net for Saturday. The Vezina candidate leads the NHL with seven shutouts and has won his past two, allowing just one goal on 53 total shots.
The Jays will raise their AL pennant banner and that last game we saw at Rogers Centre, wow, what a true epic vs. the Dodgers. We love home teams in their openers regardless and Toronto on paper might be better than last year's club. The Rancho Cucamonga Athletics or whatever they are this year have a really good young talent base and could be quite good in 2028 when they get to Vegas (Baby!). But pitcher Luis Severino is about as wildly inconsistent as they come. By comparison, we can almost always count on Jays veteran Kevin Gausman to give six solid if not strong innings. Toronto to not bat B9 at -120 (DraftKings) is a fine cheaper alternative as would be -1.
We won taking Indiana at home plus a bunch of points vs. the other L.A. team on Wednesday. In their past five roadies, the Clippers nearly and should have lost in Dallas (went to OT), lost twice in New Orleans, barely won at tanking Memphis and lost in San Antonio. Our model has the Clippers only by three as Indiana is apparently playing everyone not already shut down (like former Clipper Ivica Zubac). This might have to be a backdoor cover like Wednesday was, but that money spends the same.
If you would have told me that Aaron Judge was going to go 0-for-5 with four strikeouts in the season opener, I would have given, I don't know, -350 odds that the Giants would have covered +1.5. Alas, they got smashed 7-0. Bit of a downgrade in this one pitching-wise, though, for the Yanks from Max Fried to second-year Cam Schittler even as good as CS was as a rookie. He's certainly no Robbie Ray as the former Cy Young winner goes for SF. He was absolutely lights out this spring for what that's worth.
The Flames would be Stanley Cup contenders if every game were in Calgary whereas on the road they might be the worst team in the league. Just shocking splits. The Flames are unbeaten in the first four of this six-game homestand. Calgary has overcome a deficit in each of their last two games and can record three consecutive comeback wins for the first time since 2024-25. Netminder Devin Cooley has a 1.85 GAA vs. the Ducks this season. Anaheim is 2-0 in the series but won in OT and a shootout.
Needless to say, there's a risk betting a pitcher to win this early in the season in that he might not even go five full. I don't think that's a worry with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he's going to have to have the lead after five or that may be it for him -- his O/U outs recorded total is 16.5 after throwing five scoreless in his spring finale. Much rather play this number than Dodgers F5 -0.5 at -170.
New Orleans has been playing pretty good basketball in recent weeks with no reason to tank and Dejounte Murray back. The Pels haven't lost a game by more than five since March 3. This is mostly a fade of the Pistons, though, even though they are atop the East. They played a wild OT game last night vs. Atlanta with Jalen Duren getting 42 minutes and Daniss Jenkins 45 -- he's starting because Cade Cunningham is still out injured. Being as it's also a third game in four nights, I could see Duren taking a seat, and backup center Isaiah Stewart is still out injured.