Matt's Picks (6 Live)
The winds are blowing out about 10 mph at Wrigley today, so I expect the Cubbies to put up a crooked number against well-past-his-prime Nats starter Miles Mikolas. Leadoff hitter Michael Busch was terrific in the opening loss at 3-for-4 with two runs scored and a walk. He's more than capable of simply hitting one out in B1 to cash this immediately as Busch is 6-for-15 career with a walk (.438 OBP) and three homers off Mikolas. The model essentially gives Busch a 68% shot of scoring a run and that's about -213 on the moneyline so some value in that regard.
This will go up probably 20-25 cents by Saturday early puck drop as massive disappointment Florida is shutting guys down left and right with the playoffs a pipe dream at this point. The mini-dynasty is finished. The Islanders need every point they can get for an East playoff spot and already have confirmed No. 1 Ilya Sorokin in net for Saturday. The Vezina candidate leads the NHL with seven shutouts and has won his past two, allowing just one goal on 53 total shots.
The Jays will raise their AL pennant banner and that last game we saw at Rogers Centre, wow, what a true epic vs. the Dodgers. We love home teams in their openers regardless and Toronto on paper might be better than last year's club. The Rancho Cucamonga Athletics or whatever they are this year have a really good young talent base and could be quite good in 2028 when they get to Vegas (Baby!). But pitcher Luis Severino is about as wildly inconsistent as they come. By comparison, we can almost always count on Jays veteran Kevin Gausman to give six solid if not strong innings. Toronto to not bat B9 at -120 (DraftKings) is a fine cheaper alternative as would be -1.
We won taking Indiana at home plus a bunch of points vs. the other L.A. team on Wednesday. In their past five roadies, the Clippers nearly and should have lost in Dallas (went to OT), lost twice in New Orleans, barely won at tanking Memphis and lost in San Antonio. Our model has the Clippers only by three as Indiana is apparently playing everyone not already shut down (like former Clipper Ivica Zubac). This might have to be a backdoor cover like Wednesday was, but that money spends the same.
If you would have told me that Aaron Judge was going to go 0-for-5 with four strikeouts in the season opener, I would have given, I don't know, -350 odds that the Giants would have covered +1.5. Alas, they got smashed 7-0. Bit of a downgrade in this one pitching-wise, though, for the Yanks from Max Fried to second-year Cam Schittler even as good as CS was as a rookie. He's certainly no Robbie Ray as the former Cy Young winner goes for SF. He was absolutely lights out this spring for what that's worth.
The Flames would be Stanley Cup contenders if every game were in Calgary whereas on the road they might be the worst team in the league. Just shocking splits. The Flames are unbeaten in the first four of this six-game homestand. Calgary has overcome a deficit in each of their last two games and can record three consecutive comeback wins for the first time since 2024-25. Netminder Devin Cooley has a 1.85 GAA vs. the Ducks this season. Anaheim is 2-0 in the series but won in OT and a shootout.
Needless to say, there's a risk betting a pitcher to win this early in the season in that he might not even go five full. I don't think that's a worry with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he's going to have to have the lead after five or that may be it for him -- his O/U outs recorded total is 16.5 after throwing five scoreless in his spring finale. Much rather play this number than Dodgers F5 -0.5 at -170.
New Orleans has been playing pretty good basketball in recent weeks with no reason to tank and Dejounte Murray back. The Pels haven't lost a game by more than five since March 3. This is mostly a fade of the Pistons, though, even though they are atop the East. They played a wild OT game last night vs. Atlanta with Jalen Duren getting 42 minutes and Daniss Jenkins 45 -- he's starting because Cade Cunningham is still out injured. Being as it's also a third game in four nights, I could see Duren taking a seat, and backup center Isaiah Stewart is still out injured.
Hit a bit of a rough patch in hockey this week as a lot of decent-sized road underdogs have been winning. Rarely good for me. But I don't think this will keep going as this is usually the time of year favorites dominate because they are the ones generally pushing for the playoffs. And that's the case here. The Hawks are playing out the string, while the Flyers absolutely, positively have to get the full two points so I'll just stick with the moneyline. Over his last five outings, netminder Dan Vladar has a 1.76 GAA and a .931 save percentage. Philly eyes the sweep courtesy of a 3-1 win in the Windy City on Dec. 23.