Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Bit of a funny/sad story as mentioned in the newsletter. Biggest Bears regular-season game in a decade tonight. And yet I will be at a staging of "A Christmas Story" on ice or roller skates or mud or some craziness because someone clearly doesn't know me ... or sports. So I'm gonna play games in that entire show window as an excuse to go to the lobby and sit at the bar (there better be one). Sorry "gotta work". Have I mentioned I love this job? Gets me out of so much. Like the Curb episode where Larry uses his mother's death to get out of everything. I see Emory Hunt is on the Cats; will punch up to 3. True home game.
I recommend waiting to make sure Jaylen Brown is out, but he's doubtful. In a normal universe, that should mean out but it's the NBA so I trust nothing. Sometimes Joel Embiid goes from "corpse" to "probable" in like two hours. Don't get me started. Boston is in the second of a B2B and that's why not likely. Yeah, I guess it's hard making $40 million and playing basketball twice in 24 hours. Here is the world's tiniest violin. But I'm all about positivity today after that (quite ugly) Canes win. I don't think the Celtics win in Toronto without Brown. It's also one of those one-game trips that players despise.
I had not planned to play this, but the Flyers have ruled out No. 1 goalie Dan "Darth" Vladar. The former Calgary No. 2 has been excellent this year and stole the starting job from today's starter in Samuel Ersson (3.05 GAA). Which sounds a lot like Ershon and makes me think of the criminally underrated "The Other Guys." Truly love that movie. I also now want a glacier water with cucumber because it accents the water in such a way ... lol. In addition, Philly is without center Christian Dvorak (23 points, plus-8). Yeah, this got interesting real fast, although the Rangers for some reason are really struggling at home. Otherwise this should be probably -180.
I generally make plays with my brain and not heart .. but will make an exception for this one. I honestly believe Miami is one of the top-five most talented teams in the country if Mario Cristobal would just get out of his own way sometimes. At a neutral site, I'd crush this. But it's not. Obviously weather forecasts are tricky this far out. It looks rather nice in College Station down the road. Cold and I'm not doing this. Because the Canes are like the Dolphins. Fish out of water so to speak.
Obviously juiced but an outlier number at our books. West Ham has not lost a match in any competition by at least three goals since Sept. 13 and has drawn its past three away. Quick turnaround for the Citizens as they beat Brentford 2-0 on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup. In all competitions, Man City would have covered this twice in the past eight. Pep Guardiola's squad has some availability concerns, too. See in America I'd just say on the IR or whatnot. But in Love Actually-land (it's Christmas and that's a Top-5 all-time flick) guys might be hurt, suspended or with national teams. Many EPL clubs, including City, are missing a guy or two due to them playing in the Africa Cup of Nations.
I seriously don't know what world this is. Earth-616 per Marvel but I'm a Superman/Batman guy so I'll just say Metropolis/Gotham. I can't get much right currently other than soccer. If you had repeated that line to me 18 months ago ... I'd have said they would have remade Breakfast Club before I believed that (don't you dare!). You know, I like math (says the writer). I tend to do well on lower-scoring sports for that reason because my dome thinks a bit differently. "It is only in the mysterious equations of love that any logical reasons can be found." I'm not sure if that's relevant here, but my pattern seems to be working in this sport at least. Have learned to profit off draws.
Look, I am a very careful bettor because I play a lot. So I am fine paying this somewhat outrageous amount simply to avoid the stress and gastrointestinal discomfort that overtime/shootout would provide. I'm actually not kidding. I feel physically ill in OT (or extra innings) with stress because know I will lose. Sure feels that way. Do I think the Ducks win outright here with Dallas in the second of a B2B? Of course I think a great chance, I only play for draws in soccer. Perhaps tie no bet at -115 or I have to say Ducks +140 in regulation is not terrible. I want protection. Even at 82 cents.
Half-unit because I hate playing road teams, and I'm quite sure all those Knicks who sat out last night at Indiana will play, but I still think the team will be physically and mentally gassed from an incredibly hectic week. Maybe we get lucky and Jalen Brunson sits out. We cashed last night fading the Knicks, although Brunson won it brilliantly late. I refuse to mention a certain Sixers 7-foot former MVP with the initials JE, but he's questionable. Also the sun will rise in the East. Tell me something I don't know; I honestly don't even include that guy any longer in any prognostications it's so ridiculous. And the Sixers have been off since Sunday. So if rest means anything at all.
Do I think the Hurricanes are the better club right now? Yep, but I also say if you get the two-time champs +1 at home that you have to. Almost think the Cats will be offended being home dogs. But I'm slumping a bit across the board at the moment. Sometimes a built-in holiday day off or two isn't the worst thing to just reset. I'm not saying that I'm the Short Circuit robot -- Johnny 5 -- declaring "Malfunction! Need input!" but let's just say El DeBarge is from my hometown. "Who's Johnny?" How did a movie with El DeBarge, a lovable robot, Steve Guttenberg and Ally Sheedy not win an Oscar!?
Coming close to dumping college hoops and focusing on soccer. At least in that sport I know who will play (usually). "I'm not bitter, you are. I know you are, but what am I?" Yep, I have been relegated to fifth-grade playground talk when it comes to college basketball. And I used relegated on purpose as we segue to the Beautiful Game. I generally like U3.5 when not the super-giants of European soccer. Both these sides (no way I type the visiting name, I'd hurt myself) apparently have major availability questions, but I can't learn about two CCSU guys ruled out until 5 minutes before a hoops tip? Yet I have more solid info on German soccer ... in German. This feels backward. "Danke schön."
Man, this hurts me and I'm only doing a half-unit. So proud of Western, its best team since the Fighting Flecks of 2016. And I told myself, and perhaps I talk to myself way too much, that I bet I get an alumni/donation letter now. Sure enough Tuesday. I'm sure my $25 will find the next five-star QB. Or one-star and his lunch at Pizza Hut. It's basically the hook why I am playing this. WMU might be slightly better, but KSU has been pretty darn impressive. No apparent major opt-outs or transfers on either side. Western by a late field goal and life is good.