No surprises in either lineup tonight. The Guardians have to paper-mâché a group together to pitch in Game 6, while the Rays' Freddy Peralta has been unbelievable for two months -- Tampa Bay is 9-0 in his past nine starts -- and gets a chance to play in the World Series for the first time with a W. The Rays are hitting .333 with RISP in this ALCS, while their staff has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of eight in these playoffs overall. Best home record in the majors. I suppose as a fan I'd like to see a Game 7, but my betting persona trumps.

Certainly understand why the Rays are road favorites behind ace Drew Rasmussen, but the Guardians also beat him in Game 1 -- Tampa Bay had won 13 straight of his starts entering. Rasmussen hasn't pitched away in nearly a month. He's countered by Parker Messick, who was solid in taking a Game 2 loss. The way the Game 4 loss worked out, the Guards didn't use any of their high leverage relievers so that can only help tonight. Ideally, it's a one-run Rays win as I'd like them to advance. Our model has a slight home win.

I am trying to come up with an animatronic bird metaphor for Shohei Ohtani -- hey, I read the tabloids/internet too. And the funny thing is, I have one of those but clearly not the mega-expensive kind. Got in Key West for a few hundred bucks many years ago. I call it "Excalibird" as I like King Arthur and the Knights, etc. Maybe I should eBay that bad boy now. Ohtani clearly is hurt and too proud to say it. He is back at leadoff, but the Brewers are starting a lefty opener to counter. And I still think he's walked if a base open and trouble later on. He might homer for the first time in two months B1 but can't beat price.

There are two ways to look at tonight in my opinion regarding the starting pitchers. Maybe both are pulled early since the bullpens are both rested. But this is the first of three straight days with games (presuming there is a Game 5). So I think the managers would prefer to see their starters go at least five to help out the 'pens. Our model has Robert Gasser at 5.6 IP. I don't know about that, but he has gone at least 3.2 IP every outing this year but one.

Such a great and frankly unlikely win by Cleveland in Game 1 down 2-0 entering the sixth. I didn't even bother to check again until morning, assuming that was in the bank. Nice 6:30 a.m. WTH!! wake-up moment. Tampa Bay hasn't lost back-to-back at home in almost two months exactly. Most of its top relievers led by closer Bryan Baker were not used in the opener. Tonight starter Freddy Peralta has been dynamite for weeks, while counterpart Parker Messick was shaky in the ALDS.

Everything seems to line up well for the Rays in Game 1. They are the best home team in the majors, well-rested and starting ace Drew Rasmussen. He was truly great in the last round vs. the Yankees, and Tampa Bay has gotten a W the past 13 times he has strolled to the mound. The Guardians only finished their ALDS series Saturday and go with journeyman Foster Griffin in his second career playoff outing and first start. He did have a great season but Tampa Bay is 32-17 vs. southpaws after beating New York's Max Fried in Game 3 of the last round.

Tarik Skubal vs. Jacob Misiorowski: How good is that?! The full-game total is 6, and we might even see 5.5 by first pitch, which is pretty rare. Short of a multi-run homer, I sure don't see four total runs scored in the F5. Probably be about 16 strikeouts by the end of five. And maybe no hits.

So here are my thoughts: I have faded my White Sox four times in these playoffs, all away, and lost them all. I am completely OK losing another one here if that means they are in the ALCS up the road in St. Pete -- and I may actually have to get off my couch and go to see a game if so. They had this, darn it, but now I just don't think so. I have always asked myself what's the dollar figure for my team to advance: I am good with a full unit here either way. Win regardless. I know that's not the best betting advice but it's what I'm thinking.

San Diego has carried its home regular-season dominance to the playoffs and will have Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller available tonight. Winning Game 3 without them was just huge. Even ace Michael King, who threw two shutout innings last night, is available for an inning. I'd sure like to see a winner-take-all back in Beer Town against the Miz. Your best bet here might be Padres +1 at -155 (DK) -- all three games have been decided by one run.

Walker Buehler is back from the Paternity List and will start as the Padres try to avoid elimination again. I will be furious if I lose this because I can also play Under 9.5 -- nine outs is clearly the sweet spot as Buehler you figure gets one time through the order and if going well should finish three and maybe even start the fourth. Buehler (Buehler?) went at least 3.2 innings in every outing this year but one. He pitched six strong in his lone start vs. Milwaukee. In an ideal world, Buehler for three innings, two TBA pitchers for two and then Adrian Morejon for two and Mason Miller for two each -- they reportedly will be available after not in Game 3.

While Mason Miller landed on the Paternity List last night for the Padres about 45 minutes before first pitch, and boy did that make me mad as a bettor (worked out), tonight's Yankees starter Max Fried is in the same boat but says he's pitching no matter what. Fried has great career numbers against the Rays -- who were only five games over .500 away and recently lost three of four at Yankee Stadium. Tampa starter Nick Martinez was not good in his RS finale and has never started in the playoffs.

The Padres are electric at Petco Park and might have the best home-field advantage in the sport right now. They easily handled the Cubs there last round and might light up struggling Brewers starter Dustin May. He was 1-2 with a 7.61 ERA over his final eight outings. San Diego could easily be up 2-0 in the series, and I'll trust that usually excellent bullpen with a lead at home whereas Mason Miller blew a rare save in Game 2 in Beer Town.

The White Sox have wrecked me financially in these playoffs so far but boosted me psychologically. To quote Ron Burgundy: "I'm in a glass case of emotion!" The Pale Hose haven't even trailed yet. That's shocking for a team well under .500 away. But it's have-to time for the Guardians to avoid going to the South Side down 2-0, and I've won a lot of money the past couple of seasons backing Gavin Williams when he pitches in Cleveland. Although I expect this to come down to the bullpens. The Guardians have the edge there, and we haven't even seen the White Sox in a high-leverage situation yet jumping out to all these nice leads. Cleveland hasn't lost back-to-back games since Sept. 2-3.

We look for any small edge in the MLB playoffs and I'm not sure that San Diego's second most important reliever in lefty Adrian Morejon will be available after throwing two innings yesterday -- although this series goes dark Monday so maybe he will be OK for an inning. Starting pitcher Michael King had an ERA about a run worse this season away and during the day. Counterpart Logan Henderson was 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA at home. Henderson did not allow more than three runs in any start this season anywhere. If the Brewers start homering like they did in Game 1, they may well win their first World Series. Milwaukee was second-to-last in the majors in HRs during the RS.

I was leaning toward playing Dodgers -0.5 in F5 but this is 15 cents cheaper, and hey 1-0 we cash. Sounds like the ATL will mix and match a bit in the early innings pitcher-wise, so that in theory might help keep the Dodgers off balance. Tarik Skubal is on the mound for the hosts, so I'll take one Braves run and be happy in the F5. L.A. hasn't played a game that mattered in quite a while. Everyone keeps saying Shohei Ohtani isn't healthy, although I think that's just the Dodgers playing games and "woe is us" type of thing.