Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Two borderline NCAA Tournament-quality teams. KenPom ranks UNI 29 spots higher. One of my favorite things to wager in college hoops is a semi-evenly matched conference series where the home team won the first, which Bradley did. Don't have numbers in front of me (beef pot pie and a glass of Pinot), but I happen to know that statistically speaking conference teams don't sweep when somewhat equal. And I'm not sure UNI isn't better despite the first one. Obviously KenPom agrees. Go big or go home. I will be at a sushi-making class (Xmas present) tonight, so feel free to text me what's happening. And I don't like sushi, but what gonna do? ... I hope for Arby's on way home. #wegotthemeat
Will eat this number and go big -- anchor leg if need be (will buy out if any Boston key person out). It's high but probably should be another 50 cents higher. Still no Tyler Herro for the Heat, who did nothing at the deadline to stay mediocre. At least the Bulls got like a cacophony of second-round picks. Maybe they find the next Nikola Jokic in Round 2. LOL. Then trade him probably. And I think one of those Bulls' traded guys, Nikola Vucevic, makes the Celtics that much better. He solves a few of their issues. Could the Heat win? Obviously, but I am kinda puttering along in the NBA so I need to get going. But I usually take off post-break.
I'll throw a quarter down as we now have draw plays. Really this is just to let you know. I don't see a scenario where I bet a draw going forward. Well, maybe in the World Cup. Draw No Bet is on the way. Couple weeks.
I mean you see the price and I hate all things Mets or Metz -- the fighting Darryl Strawberries are dead last in the Ligue 1 and absolutely should lose here. But short of, I dunno, Kendall Jenner (ick) as the starting goalkeeper I'm pretty much gonna take +1.5 in a domestic match. Our model has Lille 1.7-1.1, and I expect and shall root for a one-goal win.
This will jump if Joel Embiid sits (doubt). And I don't want to mention him, but usually I only have to reference when back the Sixers. I'd be fine him sitting tonight. And I think Paul George is one of the most overrated players of his generation. But he's a very good defender. Him being out suspended for a while won't probably matter that often, but he would be the main guy on Luka and/or LeBron. Now Philly doesn't have a strong defender to deal with either. You think Dominick Barlow will do something? Also, I believe certain home games are much more important -- including those after a long road trip to reset momentum. That's where the Lakers are following their Grammys Trip.
Montana State is tied for second in the Big Sky and two up on Idaho. KenPom ranks the Bobcats 34 spots higher. They lost by 3 at Idaho on Jan. 10 but that only makes me like this a bit more. And that game was crazy with MSU up 18 at the half. Montana State has won seven in a row at home. Jed Miller has opened Big Sky play on a tear with 20 or more points six times and two double-doubles in the first 10 games. He leads the team in just about every category. So, yeah, please don't get into foul trouble/tweak an ankle. The Bobcats commit fewer turnovers than any other team in the Big Sky.
Charlotte has been really impressive of late and Houston is in the second of a B2B. But this seems a bit light at Houston -- still a talent gap. Actually believe the Rockets getting punked at home last night only helps matters. Coby White will not make his Hornets debut not that it would change my mind.
I'll miss the NHL for three weeks. I CRUSHED it after the break last year but a bit of a different break this time, so we shall see. I hadn't planned to play this as I thought the Bolts would give No. 1 netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy the game off to give his backup a rare start with three weeks off coming, but nope it's Vasy. He has won seven straight with just 12 goals allowed. The Panthers seem to be punting in the second of a B2B with Brad Marchand among those out -- and backup Daniil Tarasov in net. I do plan to do Olympic men's hockey plays in the newsletter but sadly can't officially on here so sign up.
Second of a back-to-back for Nashville, which was dragged to OT last night in a wild (pun intended) back-and-forth loss to Minnesota (hence the wild). That means backup netminder Justus Annunen tonight. He tends to run extremely hot and cold but generally cold away at 2-3-2 with a 3.59 GAA. Not a B2B for the Caps, who start No. 1 Logan Thompson (2.30 home GAA). And top-six forward Pierre-Luc Dubois returns after a 47-game injury absence.
Teams are fairly even so we basically take the home team getting the +1. Third game in a different city in four nights for the Senators. The Flyers played their best game in a while Tuesday in beating Washington. Dan Vladar improved to 10-3-4 with a 2.43 GAA at home. Always a bit extra motivation for pro teams to avoid a season sweep to any foe, and that's Philly tonight as it lost the first two vs. the Sens by a goal each.
The Memphis front office traded away its best player on Tuesday in Jaren Jackson Jr., and most everyone else notable is out. Start of a long trip for the Grizz, who are 1-6 in their past seven. Sacramento hasn't traded Domantas Sabonis .... yet. He's expected to play after missing a couple. Rare true chance for a win for the Kings, who have dropped nine in a row. You'd think all those vets have some pride left to avoid a double-digit slide. It's their first home game since Jan. 21.
BetRivers wasn't offering -1 until recently (only -1.5), although I'm prepared for possible craziness in the finale for both before the break. The Blues are free-falling with one victory in their past eight. Jordan Binnington, who is supposedly Team Canada's No. 1, has lost his past six outings while posting a 4.38 GAA and an .829 save percentage. It's Jake Oettinger for the Stars, and he'll be on Team USA. Oettinger is riding a five-game winning streak during which he has a 2.74 GAA.
KenPom ranks Georgia Southern eight spots higher for this Sun Belt matchup. The hosts are 6-5 in the league and Texas State 6-6. The Eagles' best player? That would be graduate transfer guard Spudd Webb (16.2 PPG), apparently not related to the former dunk king. At home this season, Georgia Southern is 8-3 while averaging 85.6 PPG and outscoring foes by more than 14. TSU has won back-to-back games but those were at home. It has a single road win, coming at truly dreadful UL Monroe and even that was close. When playing Georgia Southern on the road, the Bobcats are 1-7 all-time.
Don't love that red-hot Columbus is in the second of a back-to-back, but its superior goalie is in tonight in Jet Greaves, who is unbeaten in six appearances (one in relief). Not like he played Tuesday at New Jersey. And top-line forward Kirll Marchenko (46 points) is expected to play after missing Tuesday with an illness.