The line continues to move in Louisville’s favor. The Seminoles do have one of top passing defenses in the country so the Cardinals will have to attack through the ground. No Jordan Travis for Florida State which make them lean move on the run game and the Cardinals have the defensive line to check them in check.

Florida State had just 220 total yards last week at Florida. The Gators have the 117th ranked defene in terms of yards per play. 220 yards against a weak defense. Louisville has an excellent defense, I have them ranked in the top 30. Louisville has the better QB in Jack Plummer and the better HC in Jeff Brohm.

There are questions as to whether FSU backup QB Tate Rodemaker will be cleared to play in this game, but I'm not sure it matters. The difference between him and third-stringer Brock Glenn is minimal. Either way, I like Louisville to win and save the selection committee from sweating.

So now Florida State's backup/new starting QB is in some question? Wow. I already was leaning Under the total simply because the weather in Charlotte looks like ... London with rain and fog expected. Guess we'll just play the total now in case Tate Rodemaker does sit, although I can't believe that would really happen (obviously if he's hurt, he's hurt, but why are we finding this out now?) and it might be a bit of gamesmanship. I'm still not sure FSU doesn't win even with third-string freshman Brock Glenn but then I'd truly love the Under.

About +210 if you parlayed this and FSU -140 to get into the playoff. Anyone who thinks an unbeaten champion of a Power 5 conference isn't getting into the playoff just because of the Jordan Travis injury ... I'll be happy to take any wagers. Should Texas not get in because star RB Jonathon Brooks is also lost for the year? Talking head nonsense. I despise the Noles, but they absolutely would deserve it. Backup QB Tate Rodemaker isn't some freshman walk-on from Ridgemont High (alright Hamilton!) as the RS junior has been in Tallahassee since 2020 (my condolences). FSU has the superior defense and that it will be rainy in Charlotte should play into the Noles' hands. May have to ponder Under, too.

The Seminoles will not give quarterback Tate Rodemaker much of the offense and will try to wear down the Cardinals defense in order to let running back Trey Benson take over in the second half. The Cardinals will try to play ground-and-pound with Jawhar Jordan in what could be a very sloppy track in Charlotte.

Do I want to see Florida State in the College Football Playoff? No. Do I currently think they're one of the four best teams in the country? No. But do I think Louisville will do college football fans a favor and knock them off? No. I'm just not a believe in the Cardinals, who were exposed at home by Kentucky in a stunning loss last weekend. Somehow, some way, the Seminoles survive and advance to the final four. Florida State 24, Louisville 20.