I initially got this in at San Diego State +3 when the news was first announced that UTSA RB Sincere McCormick would skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft. That announcement seems to have had a huge impact on this line as it's now shifted to UTSA +3, and I now I'm playing the other side. Simply put, Sincere McCormick is a good player who will go on to have an NFL career, but he's not worth a touchdown to the spread.

This line has flipped with the defections of UTSA’s NFL hopefuls, RB Sincere McCormick and CB Tariq Woolen, plus injuries to others, but remains -3. Further, San Diego State has welcomed back players scratched from the Mountain West title game because of COVID-19. The outbreak led to the Aztecs’ worst performance of the season. The defense is stingy, permitting 19.5 points per game, and the not-so-secret weapon — peerless P Matt Araiza — is the rare punter who can impact the game on his own.

Frisco Bowl -- Yes, UTSA will have the fan advantage playing in Frisco, Texas, but the Aztecs have been undervalued all season and now their excellent defense won't have to worry about Roadrunners All-American running back Sincere McCormick as he will skip the bowl to prepare for the draft. McCormick rushed for 1,479 on 298 carries with 15 touchdowns and was named Conference USA’s offensive player of the year for the second straight season. Also, UTSA starting safety Rashad Wisdom will miss the first half due to a targeting call in the C-USA title game.

UTSA will have something of a home-field edge in Frisco, Texas, and the Roadrunners also have an offensive edge with the nation’s No. 27 offense (443 ypg). I thought it was very telling how each handled their conference title games. UTSA beat a good Western Kentucky team, while San Diego State got blasted by Utah State. Only two losses for the Aztecs, but both came against teams that sling it downfield like UTSA. The Aztecs don’t have the ability to pass their way out of a deficit. Take UTSA to cover.