Fan preferences aside, this is the best possible national championship that college football could have given us this season, and the fact that Alabama enters as a 5.5-point favorite (try to get it at 5) tells you all you need to know about how close this game will be. I like Quinnen Williams and Alabama's talented defense to slow down Trevor Lawrence enough. Remember, while Lawrence may be exceptional as a true freshman, he's not the Heisman Trophy winner; Kyler Murray kept Bama off balance with his legs, particularly late when the defense got tired, and Lawrence is more one-dimensional. Tua Tagovailoa and the Crimson Tide’s tremendous wide receiving corps are difficult to handle, and the Tigers have simply not seen an offense this caliber all season. Alabama, meanwhile, has taken down the No. 1 offense in the nation in Oklahoma and another top-tier unit in Georgia plus been tested by some of the best defenses around. The Tide are battle-tested, more talented and at near-full strength. Roll Tide!

These clubs combined for just 30 points in last year's CFP semifinals as dominant defensive units led the way. But the Crimson Tide were led by Jalen Hurts and Clemson by Kelly Bryant, both run-first quarterbacks who are no longer behind center. Their successors, Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, have provided a lethal down-field passing attack to put both offensive units in the top five nationally. Look for the firepower and explosive playmakers on both sides to negate their stellar defensive squads. This CFP final appears destined to go Over the posted total.

Alabama and Clemson have shown they're even further ahead of the college football than we might have first realized. They meet again Monday night for the third time in the past five years for the College Football Playoff title. The Tigers have covered the previous two title encounters while winning one outright. This time, the Tide have the slightly better personnel and gain an additional edge with a couple of Clemson players sitting out with a suspension. Alabama by at least a touchdown in a fast-paced affair.

A week ago, you read that any game involving Alabama’s defense did not warrant a total in the neighborhood of 80 points. Well, the Crimson Tide and Oklahoma collaborated to ring up 79. So, 58 seems doable for 'Bama and Clemson. Though the defenses are highly ranked, the offenses nearly match them with efficiency ratings of first (Tide) and ninth (Tigers), according to Football Outsiders. Clemson showed little slippage against Notre Dame without suspended nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, but Nick Saban could find ways to exploit his absence. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence should help Clemson continue a trend of Overs -- 13 of the past 16 outings on neutral fields -- in the postseason. Alabama has nearly matched that Over pace during the same number of bowl games, having exceeded the total 11 times.

Don't be fooled by the fact that Trevor Lawrence is a true freshman. He's nearly as experienced as Tua Tagovailoa. Lawrence has 326 career passing attempts and already has proven himself on a big stage. Tagovailoa has 371 career passing attempts and likewise has proven himself on a big stage, twice. Both quarterbacks have had pressure in their faces, but I trust Lawrence a little more right now based on the fact that Tagovailoa is banged up, the Tide offensive line struggled against a good front seven in the SEC Championship Game and Clemson is the most talented defensive front in the country. This one is much closer than the number indicates.

If you have one bet to make, take the over. These two wide receiver groups are both top five nationally in terms of overall talent and depth, and the secondaries of the two teams are the weak points of the defenses. Quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa will have the game in their hands, go shot-for-shot and blast through that over/under with ease. This is more like a 70-point game or 80-point game.

Clemson has an excellent defense but I think Tua Tagovailoa and this Alabama passing attack will be able to score. Trevor Lawrence is going to be under constant pressure. How often do you get Alabama as a single-digit favorite? Look for the Tide to handle their business.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - I've maintained all season long that Alabama and Clemson were a level above every other team in the country, and I haven't seen anything to cause me to change my mind. Even if it's somewhat boring to see them playing for a national title for the third time in five years, they're the ones that should be here. But this spread is too big. Ever since Clemson made the full-time switch from Kelly Bryant to Trevor Lawrence its offense has been every bit as potent as Alabama's, and Clemson's defense has actually been a bit better. Either team can win, but Clemson's going to cover.