My simulations see a mere 39 points hitting the board between LSU and BYU in what should be grinding defensive battle. We have a solid position on the Under for this game.

I was impressed with the job Kalani Sitake did in his debut last year for BYU (9-4). The Cougars were tougher and grittier defensively, and I expect a good fight out them Saturday night. LSU made major strides with its defense last year, allowing just 15.8 ppg (No. 5 nationally). LSU's defensive team speed differential from BYU's offense is going to be noticeable. Look for a low-scoring game that stays Under the total.

This spread has moved a couple of points, past the key two-touchdown threshold, for a couple of reasons. Primarily, the game has been moved from flood-ravaged Houston to the Superdome in New Orleans, giving LSU a pronounced home-field advantage. Moreover, BYU looked out of sync in its 20-6 win over FCS opponent Portland State. But this should be a good value spot on a veteran-laden underdog against LSU club that rarely plays well against the big number. The Tigers lost outright as a two-touchdown favorite against Wisconsin in last year’s opener.

LSU’s new offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, will spice things up a bit and the Tigers will become more balanced as a result. But there are significant questions along the offensive line and the Tigers' QB situation is questionable at best. You can’t say either about BYU. The Cougars are a sleeper team this season and I'll gladly take the points here.