During their current eight game winning streak, only two teams have managed to top the 60 point mark against the Aztecs, Colorado State (61) and Alabama (64). If not for a desperate rally in the final minutes, the Crimson Tide wouldn't have broken 60, and if the game on Saturday goes as I believe it will, nor will FAU. The Owls have been pretty efficient offensively but I see this game played in the 50s to low-60s similar to their matchup against Tennessee in the Sweet 16 (117 total). Add in the odd shooting dynamics being in a large dome stadium and I feel pretty good about the under in the first game of Saturday's Final Four doubleheader.

The hottest streak in the NCAA Tournament is San Diego State and Unders. It has scored in a dozen straight. The Aztecs are 266th in possessions per game, but it's not just pace of play. They embrace lock-down defense. FAU has gone 5-2 on Unders in the postseason. While the Owls carry an up-tempo tag, they rank just above the midway point for average possessions. This matchup resembles FAU versus Tennessee, a game that produced 117 points. Shooters can get befuddled in football arenas, so the setting in Houston could depress scoring.

I live in south Florida and can tell you that FAU meeting Miami in the national title game would barely cause a ripple down here. Just not a college hoops hotbed. It would be a great story for the Owls to advance but there's a reason a No. 9 seed has never made the title game, although you could certainly argue that FAU should have been better-seeded. SDSU is so good defensively it has to be the pick. Coach Brian Dutcher's squad did not allow a fast-break point against either Alabama or Creighton and has held the four combined foes in the Dance to 17.0 percent shooting from three-point range (16-for-94). We saw the superior defensive team beat the superior offensive club from Conference USA in the NIT final on Thursday (North Texas over UAB, both from C-USA).

I wouldn't go any higher than 2.5 but at this price I like San Diego State, with its incredibly physical defense, to control the pace and cover. FAU has a slew of capable scorers. I'm skeptical, however, that they can create enough separation versus the Aztecs' bigger defenders. SDSU also has gotten a big lift offensively from Darrion Trammell and Lamont Butler, lessening the pressure on Matt Bradley.

San Diego State has been one of the best three-point defenses in the country all season, and it's taken things to another level in the tournament. FAU is overly reliant on threes to score points. I don't see a lot of value on the spread, but no matter the result, I don't see this game being a high-scoring affair.

San Diego State has the 4th best defense in terms of efficiency. However, the Aztecs offense are only 70th in the offensive efficiency. Florida Atlantic is top-30 in both offensive, 24th, and defensive, 29th, efficiency. The Owls have been the better offensive team this season and the Aztecs aren’t going to blow a team away with their offense. The Owls rely heavily on the three, shooting 36.5 percent on the season and San Diego State also guards the perimeter very well, holding opponents to 27.8 percent on the season. Florida Atlantic as also been the more efficient team from the line, 73.2 percent to 66.7 percent over their last three games. The Owls are the more balance team on both sides of the ball. I'm on Florida Atlantic.

San Diego State has one of the best defenses in the country and it's been stellar here in the postseason. Since the start of the Mountain West tournament, the Aztecs are giving up an average of 56.6 points per game to opponents, with just two of those seven teams even breaking 60. SDSU will look to put the clamps on FAU just like it to its other tournament foes, but the Owls have their own issues to work out that could limit scoring. FAU is a team that has relied on the 3-pointer heavily during the year but the team isn't shooting it well right now. The Owls are a strong defensive team in their own right and will need excellence on that side unless the shooting woes are fixed with the move to a football stadium.