Getting by in an ugly manner during March Madness is one of the best carryover value angles. TCU did not deserve to get past Arizona State as it was outplayed by a wide margin. The Horned Frogs now face a Gonzaga team that suits their style better. The Zags lack the athleticism of Arizona State and will have issues handling TCU's offensive spurts. Tail the Horned Frogs.

Gonzaga is statistically playing elite basketball at the perfect moment. They're averaging 84.8 points, shooting 54.9% from the field coupled with 34.8 rebounds per game over their last five. The defense is holding opponents in that same span to 65.4 PPG and barely over 40% from the field. Meanwhile TCU is wearing down from a gauntlet of a schedule and almost a heartbreaking loss last round to Arizona State. Over the last five TCU has regressed statistically to a mere 69.4 PPG on 39% shooting. In fact, the Horned Frogs in this stretch are actually averaging more points to their opponents than scored themselves. The key will be free throws, both teams rate rather poorly through the season. If the Zags are knocking them down like they do 3's, good luck.

Since the beginning of February, it has felt as if TCU’s time is up. I can’t bet the Horned Frogs as they’ve gone 5-7 straight up and 3-9 against the spread in that span. On the other hand, Gonzaga has learned and elevated its game during its 10-game winning streak. The Bulldogs are just 6-4 ATS over that span, but the losses came when they were double-digit favorites. I like Gonzaga to cover this short number.

Gonzaga is 3-7 ATS in neutral-site games this season, and I like that ATS struggle to continue in Sunday's matchup versus Big 12 foe TCU. The Bulldogs faced two Big 12 teams this season, losing to Baylor and Texas while turning it over a combined 38 times. Led by Mike Miles, who's averaging 20 points over his last four games, the Horned Frogs can run with Gonzaga and they have the quickness to bother the Zags' guards. Drew Timme should have a big day inside against a TCU team that lost Eddie Lampkin, but look for an entertaining shootout and grab the points.