This is the kind of game Indiana lives for. St. Mary's is a strong team, but it moves slowly and prefers to play half-court basketball. That plays right into the Hoosiers hands, because they are not efficient offensively, and prefer to choke the life out of games as well. The Hoosiers had the most efficient defense in the Big Ten this season, but while they sometimes get into trouble with fouls and send teams to the line too often, St. Mary's rarely gets to the line. I think the Gaels win more often than not, but neither one of these teams is likely to pull too far away from the other, so I'm taking the points.

Indiana has beat three NCAA Tournament teams (Michigan, Illinois, Wyoming) since Saint Mary's played its last game, and the only loss in that stretch was a last second heartbreaker to Iowa, another NCAA Tournament team, in the Big Ten semifinals. When it comes to college basketball and the rest vs. rust debate I'll take the rhythm of the Hoosiers, who are very comfortable playing the kind of grinding, defensive battle that Saint Mary's usually prefers.

Saint Mary’s has excelled in its last seven games, going 1-2 against Gonzaga (ranked No. 1) over that stretch while also beating San Francisco, Santa Clara and BYU. You have to respect its strength of schedule. The Gaels come off a loss to Gonzaga in the WCC title game and have covered their last six games off a loss. Take Saint Mary’s to win.