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Tue 04/06 | 1:20 AM UTC | Indianapolis
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Baylor Bears 27-2, 19-10 ATS
BAYLOR +4.5
BAYLOR +185
Over 158.5
Gonzaga Bulldogs 32-0, 17-13 ATS
GONZAG -4.5
GONZAG -190
Under 158.5

Expert Picks

Baylor 86 @ Gonzaga 70 | 04/06 | 1:20 AM UTC

Baylor +4.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: What a great matchup, just the ninth time that two No. 1 seeds meet in the title game – the schools were supposed to play Dec. 5 also in Indianapolis, but it was canceled due to COVID. The preseason No. 1 vs. the preseason No. 2 in the AP Top 25 and the best two-point shooting team in the nation (Gonzaga) vs. the best three-point shooting team (Baylor). I don’t want to overreact to Gonzaga being pushed to the absolute limit in the Zags’ thrilling Final Four overtime win over 11th-seeded UCLA, but perhaps the Bruins did provide a roadmap to beat this amazing team. There’s also the fact Gonzaga might be a bit physically and emotionally drained following that victory, while Baylor barely broke a sweat in its rout of Houston. I have to go with the team that played the much tougher schedule and that’s Baylor, which is 6-0 against AP Top 10 teams.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 BAYLOR ATS PICKS
+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 GONZAG ATS PICKS

Season Splits

27-2, 19-10 ATS
32-0, 17-13 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
65%
19-10
16-13-3
55%
On Road or Neutral
LOCATION
On Road or Neutral
72%
13-5
11-7-1
61%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
0-0
16-13-3
55%
When Spread was +2.5 to +6.5
SPREAD
When Spread was -6.5 to -2.5
0-0
2-0-1
100%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
Favored on Road or Neutral
0-0
11-7-1
61%
vs Teams That Win >65% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >65% of Games
70%
12-5
8-4-3
66%
vs Teams Allowing 67 to 72 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <67 PPG
63%
7-4
5-1-1
83%
After <4 Days Off
REST
After <4 Days Off
55%
10-8
7-7-2
50%
vs GONZAG
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BAYLOR
0-0
0-0