This will be the best defense Gonzaga has faced this season. These will also be the best defensive guards the Bulldogs have faced this year. Baylor is going to pressure freshman guard Jalen Suggs like no other opponent has. The Bears' offense can keep up with the Bulldogs, as Baylor is second in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Bears are No. 1 in three-point shooting. My model has Gonzaga at -1 here.

This was a matchup we almost had in early December, but it was cancelled due to COVID-19. Over its last three NCAA Tournament games, Baylor has been impressive and cashed in ATS versus Villanova, Arkansas and Houston. But expect Gonzaga’s offensive talent and depth to pose a problem for the Bears. Look for the Bulldogs to complete their undefeated season and cash ATS.

Gonzaga is scoring 92 ppg and shooting 55 percent, while Baylor is the best from long-range shooting 42.9 percent. But I think it will be the best defense that wins this game and Gonzaga has it. That’s part of the reason I’m also playing the Under in this game. But the betting strategy is simple -- lay the points with Gonzaga whenever the spread is single digits.

If you like Gonzaga you should love the results of the Final Four games with Baylor dominating and the Zags needing overtime. Like most speculative markets, we've seen a strong emotional reaction to a very normal event. This line was set to open at -6.5 for Gonzaga before Saturday's games tipped. If you look at the expected score of UCLA vs. Gonzaga by taking the made shot probability of each attempted shot in the game, you would see Gonzaga won by 22 points. That's how much UCLA over performed in that game, and Gonzaga was still able to win. My simulations make the Zags -6.3 points better in this championship game. Lay it.

Baylor dominated Saturday while Gonzaga squeaked by on an overtime heave, but I still like the Zags to complete their perfect season. The Bears thrive against isolation-heavy teams thanks to lockdown defender Davion Mitchell, but the Zags run a free-flowing offense with constant motion and cuts to the basket. Drew Timme is the X-factor Baylor can't match. He's averaged 25 points and seven rebounds over the past four games. The Zags also are better at the foul line, which should come in handy late. Lay the points.

What a great matchup, just the ninth time that two No. 1 seeds meet in the title game – the schools were supposed to play Dec. 5 also in Indianapolis, but it was canceled due to COVID. The preseason No. 1 vs. the preseason No. 2 in the AP Top 25 and the best two-point shooting team in the nation (Gonzaga) vs. the best three-point shooting team (Baylor). I don’t want to overreact to Gonzaga being pushed to the absolute limit in the Zags’ thrilling Final Four overtime win over 11th-seeded UCLA, but perhaps the Bruins did provide a roadmap to beat this amazing team. There’s also the fact Gonzaga might be a bit physically and emotionally drained following that victory, while Baylor barely broke a sweat in its rout of Houston. I have to go with the team that played the much tougher schedule and that’s Baylor, which is 6-0 against AP Top 10 teams.

It's probably fitting that the most bizarre season in college basketball history gave us a perplexing penultimate act in the Final Four that saw the most competitive game on paper turn into a blowout early and one of the most dominant teams in recent memory was nearly sent home by a No. 11 seed that played in the First Four. Gonzaga sprained an ankle Saturday while finishing its lap around the field but should suck it up and come across the finish line with its first title Monday night. It's hard to imagine an NCAA Tournament with a finish like Saturday's not ending with the Zags completing the job.