This is a matchup of two teams that are pretty similar to one another. There's a reason that our Sportsline projections have Tennessee winning this game by a point, while KenPom's have Purdue winning by a point. When it comes to games that should be tight like this one, I look for one area where I think a team can exploit the other, and in this matchup, I think it's the offensive glass. Purdue is a great offensive rebounding team. Tennessee's been a poor defensive rebounding team all season. In a matchup like this, something that simple can make a major difference.

At its best, as in the first half last weekend against Iowa, Tennessee is a threat to take the NCAA title. The Volunteers are subjected to more lapses than other contenders, so they must stay focused to cover. Purdue has played admirably, but let’s go with the more balanced offensive team than the one that leans heavily on a single player (Carsen Edwards).

Purdue's half-court execution on both ends translates well to the postseason. The Boilermakers are strong on the defensive end but can still struggle for consistent offense. They have just two players who score in double figures and can rely on Carsen Edwards a little too often. Tennessee has five players in double figures and eight who average at least 12 minutes. The Volunteers overcame adversity amid Iowa's wild comeback from a 25-point deficit in the second round. Look for them to make just enough plays to clip Purdue and advance to the Elite Eight.

If Purdue plays the way it did Saturday against Villanova where Carsen Edwards dropped 42 points and nailed nine 3's, no one will beat the Boilermakers in this tournament. But consistency has been their problem. Two late-season losses to Minnesota were puzzling. But Tennessee got beat twice late in its season against Auburn and is just 3-9 ATS in the last 12, and 0-3 ATS in the last three. The Vols are playing well below a team rating that peaked six weeks ago. I'm on Purdue.

Purdue is really hot right now and the Big Ten is certainly the conference you want to come from in this tournament. Tennessee fades down the stretch. Back Purdue.