The Wolf Pack stumbled down the stretch against inferior competition in the Mountain West and saw its quest for a tournament title come to an end with a lopsided defeat to San Diego State for the second straight season. Florida scrapped its way to a bid with a late-season surge that included a pair of wins over LSU and appears to be peaking at the right time. Even so, Nevada still has the better personnel and an experience edge from reaching the Sweet 16 last year. It has been favored in every game this season and this is the second-shortest spread it has seen.

I've been on the heel side of the Gators all year -- just look at my short pick history -- but Florida is playing its best basketball this season as of late and should be primed for a 10-7 upset. Nevada is on an awful ATS run, and Florida guard Jalen Hudson looks to have finally found himself after spending two-thirds of the season looking, well, awful. The Gators played their way into the field, but they are far more talented than they have played this season. Back Florida. and then consider doing so again vs. Michigan in the Round of 32.

Nevada, there's a lot of problems right now on that team. Players are upset, they're tired. The team has been a terrible cover the last month. I think Florida comes in and takes advantage. They can win outright.

This year's Nevada team isn't all that different from the Nevada team that made a Sweet 16 run last season. It's a little worse on offense, but a bit better on defense. Still, I think Florida's being undervalued a bit in this spot. The Gators are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and move at one of the slowest paces in the country. That should keep the margin tight in this one, and I feel like it's almost a coin flip, so I'll take the points.

The Wolf Pack look as though they've run out of gas and the effect has had them overrated for the past month. They are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight, with two losses against San Diego State and another at Utah State. The Gators had a tough stretch to close out the regular season but played well in the SEC Tournament, with two wins and a close loss to eventual winner Auburn. The Gators have covered their last four. Florida should probably be a slight favorite in this one.