Two things to keep in regarding college football win totals: They are regular-season only (i.e., no conference title games or bowls) and there is the possibility of teams having to forfeit this season if there's a COVID outbreak. Games will not be postponed in the SEC this year, for example, if one team can't field enough players. With that said, bettors at Caesars Sportsbook are obliterating Over win totals on Kentucky, Mississippi State and Ole Miss but also hammering Under on defending national champion Alabama.
Let's start with the Tide first. Coach Nick Saban's team is a -140 favorite to win the SEC yet again and +260 for another national title. So why, then, has 80 percent of all money wagered and 77 percent of tickets sold thus far at Caesars been on the Under? Because it's set at crazy-high 11.5.
Only Clemson is also set that high in the country. Obviously, one loss and the Under would hit for Alabama, which returns the second-fewest starters in the SEC with 11. In the past five years, the Crimson Tide have undefeated in the regular season three times. Barring major injury, they will be favored in every game – because they always are. Alabama is a 19-point favorite for Week 1 vs. No. 14 Miami in Atlanta and has tough trips to No. 13 Florida, No. 6 Texas A&M and unranked Auburn.
Tennessee is also taking a big double-under lean under new head coach Josh Heupel, with 92 percent of all money wagered on Under 6.0 wins and 83 percent of tickets.
Meanwhile, Kentucky is set at 7.0 wins and a whopping 98 percent of money wagered is on the Over and 97 percent of tickets sold. Recently, Coach Mark Stoops named Penn State transfer Will Levis as his starting QB. Levis beat out former Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood to become the starter and Gatewood has transferred. UK has three preseason Top 25 teams on the schedule and they come in a three-game stretch: Oct. 2 vs. No. 13 Florida, Oct. 9 vs. No. 16 LSU and Oct. 16 at No. 5 Georgia.
Mississippi State, in Year 2 of the Mike Leach Era, is set at 6.0 wins and 99 percent of all money wagered is on the Over as are 89 percent of tickets sold. Rival Ole Miss, in Year 2 of the Lane Kiffin Era, is set at 7.5 wins and 93 percent of all money wagered is on the Over and 81 percent of tickets sold. The potential Over for both could come down to the Egg Bowl on Nov. 25 in Starkville.
Which Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Join SportsLine now to get 2021 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season.
