The Cincinnati Bengals opened as 1-point underdogs for Sunday's AFC Championship Game rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs, but there's been heavy action on the Bengals due to the high-ankle sprain suffered by Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the Divisional Round. The Bengals are now 2-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook with Burrow supplanting Mahomes as the favorite to win MVP at Super Bowl 57.
It is important to note that different books have different odds to win MVP. For example, FoxBet has Mahomes at +320 with Burrow and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts both +333. DraftKings has Hurts favored at +300 with both Burrow and Mahomes +350. Caesars has shifted Burrow into the favored role at +330 with Mahomes and Hurts +350. The site also has the same exacta favorites for the Super Bowl 57 result at +500 each: Eagles over Bengals, and Bengals over Eagles. Chiefs over Eagles is next at +550.
There's almost no chance Mahomes doesn't play Sunday, but the consensus is that Cincinnati would close at least at -3 if he doesn't -- perhaps even as high as -4. Mahomes' backup is veteran Chad Henne, who has performed well when called upon over the past two postseasons.
Buffalo's Josh Allen was the betting favorite entering the postseason to leads all quarterbacks in playoff passing yards – Mahomes wasn't because Kansas City had a bye on Wild Card Weekend. With Allen and the Bills knocked out last weekend by the Bengals, Burrow is the new +110 favorite on this prop even though he's fifth in passing yards with 451. Allen still leads with 617. Burrow threw for 286 yards earlier this season in a win over Kansas City and for 250 yards in the AFC title game upset of K.C. last year. The books are quite exposed on Burrow, as he has taken the highest handle overall since the start of the postseason (Mahomes leads in tickets).
49ers seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy is +120 on the passing yards prop and second with 546. He's just the fifth rookie QB to lead his team to a conference title game, and the other four lost. Purdy faces an Eagles defense that allowed the fewest passing yards during the regular season and was even better last week against the Giants.
Mahomes is way down at +900 on this prop because he only has played in the one game, and was limited to 195 yards against the Jaguars in part due to his injury. Hurts is +1200 and has 154 yards. A QB would normally have to reach the Super Bowl to come out ahead for a prop like this, but that might not be the case this time around if Burrow and/or Purdy have big games Sunday in losses.
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