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Buccaneers vs. 49ers NFL Week 14 odds, spread, trends: In first career start, Brock Purdy could make history by beating Tom Brady

Rookie Brock Purdy makes his first NFL start on Sunday against the Bucs and Tom Brady.
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Mr. Irrelevant is the title bestowed upon the last player chosen in each NFL draft, and for obvious reasons most of those players fail to make much of an impact on the team -- or even make a roster. They are chosen last for a reason. 2022's Mr. Irrelevant, former Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy, makes his first career start Sunday for the San Francisco 49ers as they host Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 3.5-point underdogs at Caesars Sportsbook.

Brady is the GOAT of NFL quarterbacks and holds nearly every regular-season passing record (not to mention his seven Super Bowl rings). He completed the record-setting 44th comeback of his career on Monday night as the Bucs rallied from down 13 with about three minutes left to stun New Orleans 17-16. It marked the first time during the regular season that Brady won after trailing by 13 or more points in the fourth quarter.

Brady now has 249 career regular-season wins, 640 passing touchdowns and 87,852 passing yards at 45 years of age. The 22-year-old Purdy saw his first NFL action last Sunday when Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending foot injury and was a solid 25-for-37 for 210 yards, two TDs and a pick. Brady vs. Purdy features largest gaps in an NFL starting QB matchup all-time in wins, passing TDs, passing yards and age.

At DraftKings, Purdy is given over/under totals of 206.5 passing yards, 1.5 TDs (the Under is a heavy -235 favorite) and 0.5 interceptions (the Over a slight favorite). He has a longest completion prop of 32.5 yards. An offshore book offers a prop on whether Purdy starts the final five games, with Yes at -200 and No at +150. Barring injury, the Niners don't have many other options. Purdy's new backup is journeyman Josh Johnson.

Purdy will attempt to make history against Brady, who is 6-0 all-time (3-3 against the spread) against quarterbacks making their first NFL start. Here are the results for those opposing QBs:

  • 2019 Luke Falk (Jets): L, 30-14
  • 2013 E.J. Manuel (Bills): L, 23-21
  • 2012 Jake Locker (Titans): L, 34-13
  • 2011 Tyler Palko (Chiefs): L, 34-3
  • 2010 Matt Flynn (Packers): L, 31-27
  • 2004 Luke McCown (Browns): L, 42-15

Purdy is the first rookie QB drafted in the seventh round or later (or undrafted) to be favored in his first career start since Philadelphia's Brad Goebel in 1991. Purdy will not be the lowest-drafted QB to face Brady, however. That honor belongs to Doug Flutie, who was the 285th pick (11th round) in the 1985 draft.

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