2022 AFC West odds, NFL props: Justin Herbert favored to lead loaded division's QBs in passing yards
No division is more loaded at quarterback this season than the AFC West.
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Just a few years ago, the AFC West might have been the NFL's worst division in terms of overall quality of starting quarterbacks. With the Denver Broncos vastly upgrading this offseason by trading for future Hall of Famer Russell Wilson, it's now easily the best. Wilson, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers' Justin Herbert and the Raiders' Derek Carr all call the division home. None of them are going anywhere soon, either. DraftKings has an interesting prop on which AFC West QB throws for the most yards this season.
It's no real surprise that Herbert is the +120 favorite because he's also the +550 favorite at DK to lead the NFL in passing yards, although Caesars Sportsbook has the Buccaneers' Tom Brady as the +700 favorite and Herbert second at +750, with Mahomes fourth at +800. DK has Mahomes third at +900.
I'd imagine Mahomes (+150 on this prop) would be favored for both if the Chiefs hadn't traded away All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill this offseason to Miami. Hill averaged 1,258 receiving yards the past two seasons.
While Brady led the NFL with 5,316 yards last season, Herbert was second with 5,014 and has set the NFL record for most passing yards in a player's first two seasons with 9,350, shattering the previous mark of 8,196 by the Colts' Andrew Luck. Remember, Herbert wasn't even the Week 1 starter his rookie year – Tyrod Taylor was. That seems funny now.
Carr could be the best value at +350 considering he added perhaps the NFL's best receiver to his arsenal this offseason in former Packers All-Pro Davante Adams. Carr was fifth in the league last year with 4,804 yards when his top wideouts were Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Zay Jones and Henry Ruggs (now out of the NFL). Carr also has one of the league's top tight ends in Darren Waller.
It makes sense that Wilson is the +1200 long shot on this prop as the Broncos still figure to run the ball plenty with an excellent 1-2 running back punch of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III. As good as Wilson is, he has never thrown for more than 4,212 yards. You also have the weather factor in Denver in the back half of the season.
If you are wondering, and I was, the last AFC West quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yards was the Broncos' Peyton Manning in 2013 when he set the league record with 5,477.
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