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Below, we examine three Kalshi prediction markets for Week 1, using information from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, along with relevant team and player trends. The three markets feature Houston vs. Buffalo, Minnesota vs. Green Bay, and Dallas vs. the New York Giants.
Kalshi prediction markets for NFL Week 1
Texans vs. Bills: Houston to defeat Buffalo ($0.50 per share)
Vikings vs. Packers: Minnesota to defeat Green Bay ($0.53 per share)
Giants vs. Cowboys: Dallas to defeat New York ($0.61 per share)
Texans vs. Bills predictions
Buffalo and Houston both finished 12-5 last season, but they arrived at that record through different formulas. The Bills scored 28.3 points per game, the fourth-most in the NFL, and ranked third leaguewide per EPA/Play. Now, Joe Brady takes over as head coach after directing that offense. Josh Allen also gets another weapon in DJ Moore. Houston's calling card resides on the other side of the ball. The Texans allowed just 17.4 points per game in 2025, second-best in the league and second per EPA/Play, and still feature Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter in addition to drafting second-round defensive tackle Kayden McDonald. In other words, something has to give.
These teams were nearly attached at the hip last season. Green Bay finished 9-7-1, Minnesota went 9-8, and their underlying profiles were almost opposites. Green Bay ranked fourth leaguewide in offensive EPA/Play. Minnesota finished 28th in the same metric. Defensively, however, the Vikings ranked third in EPA/Play compared to 22nd for the Packers. Minnesota's most consequential change is front and center: Kyler Murray will take over at quarterback, surrounded by Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan, and T.J. Hockenson. Green Bay, meanwhile, won't have Micah Parsons for the opener as he continues recovering from last year's ACL and meniscus injuries, and Josh Jacobs is unavailable entering Week 1. None of that suddenly makes the Packers a pushover—Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur are still around—but the early-season circumstances have tilted toward Minnesota.
Dallas' 7-9-1 record last season hid one rather important detail: the offense wasn't the primary problem. Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns, as the Cowboys scored 27.7 points per game (seventh-most in the NFL) and ranked fifth leaguewide in offensive EPA/Play. The defense was a different story, finishing 32nd—dead last—in defensive EPA/Play and dead last in points allowed, prompting a substantial overhaul that now features Quinnen Williams, Rashan Gary, and first-rounder Malachi Lawrence. New York actually ranked 10th in offensive EPA/Play but just 27th defensively, and is conducting its own makeover under John Harbaugh, with second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart taking over after showing promise as a rookie. Malik Nabers' availability also bears monitoring following his ACL recovery.
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