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2026 Texas Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 63% probability for one side of James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Texas Senate winner
The Texas Senate election between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton will be decided on November 3. James Talarico is leading at $0.63 per share on Kalshi, but down from $0.65 on Oct. 13, and Paxton is at $0.37 per share, up from $0.36. The race has flipped since December 2024, when Paxton led the Texas Senate prediction market odds, 75% to 25%. More than $33 million has been traded across the Texas Senate winner prediction markets at Kalshi as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 US Senate races on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered.
How to claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for $55 bonus
- Sign Up: Click Claim Bonus and enter code SPORTSLINE55 during registration.
- Verify: Pass identity verification (KYC)
- Deposit: Complete a deposit of $10+.
- Trade $25: Place $25 or more in trades within 30 days.
- Use Bonus Credits: Receive $55 in bonus trading credits and trade them within 7 days.
- Withdraw Cash Profits: Withdraw net cash profits from winning trades after completing the trade-through requirement.
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 details
Promo Code | |
Welcome Offer | |
Promo Eligibility | New users 18+ physically located in a state where Kalshi operates (*Political and election contracts are unavailable in NV & WA. Sports contracts are unavailable in NV, MI & WA.) |
Last Verified | October 20, 2026 |
Kalshi Texas Senate winner prediction market pricing, implied odds
Texas Senate winner:
James Talarico (D): $0.63 per share
Ken Paxton (R): $0.37 per share
Total traded at Kalshi: $33.6 million
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
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Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prices subject to change. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade.