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2026 Texas Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 60% probability for one side of James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Texas Senate winner
The race for the U.S. Senate in Texas is heating up, with the 2026 United States Midterms set for November 3. James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R) will battle it out to see who will join Ted Cruz (R) as a U.S. Senator representing Texas. Over $15 million has already been traded on the Texas State winner prediction market at Kalshi. Kalshi prices Talarico (D) at $0.60 per share to win, while Paxton (R) is trading at $0.41 per share. The $0.60 share price means there is a 60% implied probability in the Texas Senate race odds. :