The Lightning defeated the Stars 5-0 at home on Saturday. They outshot Dallas 21-20, which is not that impressive considering the final score. The Stars are very competitive at home, allowing just 26.5 shots-on-goal per game. They average 3.38 goals per game while allowing 2.25. On the road, Tampa Bay is averaging 3.00 goals per game while allowing 2.44. I think is line is way too high and see good value on the home team.

My model says the Lightning win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them. Tampa Bay is riding a four-game winning streak that includes a pair of shutouts, including one against Dallas at home on Saturday. The loss was the eighth in nine contests for the Stars, who have scored a total of three goals in their last three setbacks. Dallas has dropped four straight at home. Expect the slide to continue on Tuesday.