My model says the Maple Leafs win in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value at this number. Toronto is riding a three-game winning streak and has earned points in 13 of its last 14 contests (11-1-2). During the run, the Maple Leafs posted back-to-back victories at Calgary in late January. The Flames have lost three straight and four of five, scoring one goal in each of the defeats while allowing a total fo 20 over the stretch. Take Toronto.

This is a pretty cheap price to get on the Maple Leafs at home Monday. Auston Matthews has been absurd in the early going with at least one point in his past 16 games, totaling 18 goals (those 18 goals lead the league by a wide margin) and 28 points during that stretch. He also is just the 12th player in NHL history to open the scoring in four consecutive team games (regular season or playoffs). No player has ever reached five in a row. Calgary, meanwhile, is 1-8 in its past nine as a dog. Toronto won two games at the Flames earlier this season.