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Kansas City Chiefs betting odds, Week 1 Vegas NFL spread and Patrick Mahomes MVP chances

Patrick Mahomes is favored to win his second MVP in 2020 and the Chiefs are favored to repeat as Super Bowl champs. Here's a betting analysis of their 2020 schedule:
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Believe it or not, no player has won the NFL MVP and had his team win the Super Bowl that same season since 1999. Could newly very-rich Patrick Mahomes end that drought with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020? They start their quest to become first club to repeat as Super Bowl champions since 2004 when they host the Houston Texans in the annual Week 1 Kickoff Game on Thursday. The Chiefs are 9-point favorites on the William Hill NFL odds. That line opened at -10. The Chiefs have won five straight Week 1 games, tied for the longest streak in the NFL with Green Bay.

In Coach Andy Reid's tenure, the Chiefs are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in Week 1 games. That lone SU loss was in 2014 at home vs. Tennessee. Kansas City has covered its past three Week 1 matchups and is 1-0 SU and ATS in the Kickoff Game. To begin the 2017 season, the Chiefs visited the defending champion New England Patriots as 8-point underdogs and pulled the 42-27 upset. Defending Super Bowl champions have generally had success, though, going 12-3 in the Kickoff Game. 

The Chiefs will be without five starters in Week 1 from last year's club: Two left in free agency, while guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif and running back Damien Williams opted out, and cornerback Bashaud Breeland was suspended for the first four games for an off-field incident back in the spring. 

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PROFILE             

2019 record: 12-4, (first in AFC West)

2019 against the spread: 13-5-1 ATS

2019 ATS margin: +4.8

2019 Over-Under: 10-9 O-U

2020 strength of schedule: T-18th-toughest; Chiefs opponents combined for a .500 winning percentage last year (128-128).

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WILLIAM HILL 2020 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS FUTURES ODDS

Win total: 11.5 (Over -130)

To finish with NFL's best regular-season record: +400

To make playoffs: Yes -1200 (shortest odds in NFL), no +700

Division: -450 to win AFC West

Conference: +275 to win AFC

Super Bowl: +550 to win SB 55

MVP: QB Patrick Mahomes +350 (favorite), WR Tyreek Hill +25000, TE Travis Kelce +30000

Defensive POY: DE Chris Jones +5000, S Tyrann Mathieu +6600, DE Frank Clark +10000   

Offensive ROY: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire +350

SportsLine Model's projection: 11.4 wins (Under)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS GAME-BY-GAME BETTING TRENDS

Week 1 vs. Houston, 8:20 p.m. ET (TNF): Defending Super Bowl champs are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 season openers.

Week 2 at LA Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven division road games, plus they've covered six straight visits to the Chargers.

Week 3 at Baltimore, 8:15 p.m. ET (MNF): The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS the week after visiting the Chargers.

Week 4 vs. New England, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS after playing the Ravens.

Week 5 vs. Las Vegas, 1 p.m. ET: The Chiefs have won seven straight home meetings, going 6-1 ATS.

Week 6 at Buffalo, 8:20 p.m. ET (TNF): The Under is 7-0 the week after K.C. hosts the Raiders.

Week 7 at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 5-0 SU and ATS in their past five visits to Denver.

Week 8 vs. NY Jets, 1 p.m. ET: K.C. 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven home games vs. AFC East foes.

Week 9 vs. Carolina, 1 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are just 11-12-2 ATS in their last 25 games versus the NFC.

Week 10: Bye

Week 11 at Las Vegas, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF): In contrast to Andy Reid's success off a bye in Philly, the Chiefs are 2-7-1 ATS after a bye since Reid took over in 2013.

Week 12 at Tampa Bay, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings.

Week 13 vs. Denver, 8:20 p.m. ET (SNF): Kansas City has won four straight home meetings (3-1 ATS), with three of those victories by double digits.

Week 14 at Miami, 1 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in their past 10 visits to Miami.

Week 15 at New Orleans, 4:25 p.m. ET: The Chiefs are 15-8 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons.

Week 16 vs. Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET: The Over has cashed in five straight meetings.

Week 17 vs. LA Chargers, 1 p.m. ET: Andy Reid is 27-3 straight-up versus AFC West foes over the past five years, and the Chiefs have covered 10 of their past 13 division games.

Some trends contributed by SDQL Gurus 

EXPERT PICK FROM NO. 1 NFL EXPERT MIKE TIERNEY: Under 11.5 wins (+120)

For the most part, the Chiefs stood pat this offseason. Hard to blame a defending champion for doing so, but more fresh blood might have contributed to a cure for a Super Bowl hangover. A late-season swing of five games includes four on the road, three in warm-weather locales (Las Vegas, Tampa, Miami), so the Chiefs could be tested physically. Not storing up wins before those tests could dash any chance of an Over.

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SportsLine Staff