No question that the biggest storyline in the NFL this week will be the status of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes after he left Sunday's 22-17 divisional round win over the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter with a possible concussion. NFL oddsmakers at William Hill Sportsbook have opened the Chiefs as 3-point home favorites for next Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the visiting Buffalo Bills, but that line would swing at least by a touchdown, most likely, if Mahomes can't play. The total is 50.5 and that would clearly drop without Mahomes. Kickoff is 6:40 p.m. ET on CBS.
Chad Henne has been in the NFL since 2008 but had never thrown a playoff pass until relieving Mahomes against the Browns. Henne was 6-for-8 for 66 yards and a pick in the Cleveland end zone (horrible pass). It looked as if the Chiefs would blow out the Browns up 19-3 at the half, but the Mahomes injury changed everything and dropped Kansas City to 1-8 against the spread in its past nine games.
Kansas City also played Sunday without top running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (hip, ankle) and wideout Sammy Watkins (calf).
Buffalo will be on an extra day of rest after beating visiting Baltimore 17-3 on Saturday, the Bills' eighth straight victory. The Ravens appeared set to tie the game 10-all late in the third quarter before Taron Johnson picked off Lamar Jackson and returned it 101 yards for a touchdown. It was Jackson's first career red-zone interception. He had 49 touchdowns and zero picks in the red zone in his career entering, including playoffs.
The Chiefs were 5.5-point favorites when they visited Buffalo in Week 6 on a Monday night, and Kansas City won 26-17. Mahomes was 21-for-26 for 225 yards and two scores. K.C. also rushed for 245 yards and a TD; Edwards-Helaire had 161 yards on 26 carries. Josh Allen was 14 of 27 for 122 yards, two scores and a pick for the Bills.
It's the first playoff meeting between the Chiefs and Bills since Buffalo beat visiting Kansas City 30-13 in the AFC title game on Jan. 23, 1994. Neither Mahomes nor Allen had been born yet.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model entered the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
