Past Expert Picks
Kansas City @ Las Vegas | 11/23 | 1:20 AM UTC
Kansas City -7
Las Vegas is feeling mighty good about itself after three consecutive outright wins and a Week 5 triumph that is the lone blotch on the Chiefs’ record. But Kansas City's Andy Reid is aces coming out of byes, with an 18-3 straight-up career mark. The low-key coach publicly took issue with the Raiders for a celebration after the first matchup, which will serve to pump up his team. This line floated up when 10 Raiders hit the COVID-reserve list, then returned to an inviting 7 after seven players were activated.
Kansas City's Andy Reid is a tremendous coach who does a great job having his team ready to go coming off a bye week. In this game, the Chiefs are facing a Raiders team that beat them earlier in the year and still is playing really well. I like the Chiefs' ability to make adjustments on the fly when facing common opponents. Add in the fact they're coming off of a bye and they should cover this spread very easily.
Andy Reid off the bye. Andy Reid off the bye. Andy Reid off the bye. Reid is 18-3 straight up and 14-7 against the spread coming off a bye week in the regular season, and while that’s not the sole reason to buy into the Chiefs, it certainly helps. Here’s more: Kansas City is looking for revenge after the Raiders held it to eight second-half points in their first meeting a month ago. That’s not going to happen again. The Raiders are also a bit overrated after piling up wins against mediocre teams. If there's anything the Chiefs are not, it's mediocre. Kansas City has beaten L.A. each of the last two seasons by a touchdown or more coming off the bye. I like this better at -7 and tried to wait, but with kickoff approaching, I'm willing to take it.
"Andy Reid off the bye" has been music to bettors' ears for years (Reid is 18-3 off the bye in his career, including beating the Raiders 40-9 last year), and there are other reasons to expect a Chiefs cover here. K.C. will be motivated to avenge its only loss, and Reid seems irritated by the victory lap Raiders buses took after that Week 5 game. The Raiders have won three in a row, but one was aided by crazy wind (Browns) and another by an overturned TD (Chargers). The Chiefs will be rested and ready; I want to take them while the line is less than a TD.
I think Kansas City, coming off its bye, is going to hand it to Las Vegas. The Chiefs have a score to settle. The Raiders have feasted on turnovers lately, but K.C. does not turn it over much. Jon Gruden has done a great job, but the Raiders will get their comeuppance Sunday.