NFC North matchups involving the Packers have seen the Under go 5-0 this season, and that isn’t likely to change in a game where David Blough is the opposing QB. The Packers have the No. 11 pass defense by DVOA, and both sides will likely look to keep in on the ground quite a bit. Take the Under.

You want to fade double-digit road favorites in Week 17 (2-9 ATS despite being 9-2 straight up), and with the Packers coming off a dominant Monday night win in a game to lock up the division title, we could see them take the foot off the gas a little in this matchup. I certainly don't think the Lions will win, but you can't lay this many points with the Packers considering their underlying stats don't match their 12-3 record. Incredibly, the Packers actually have a negative yards per play differential on the year. This will be lower-scoring game where the Packers win but don't cover.

I thought the Lions showed tremendous fight and effort against Denver last week in a game in which it would've been easy for them to lay down. That sort of happened in the second half, but the contest was very competitive throughout. I don't expect to see the same type of effort against a Packers team that still is battling for the top seed in the NFC.

Euphoria over Green Bay’s smashing win over Minnesota has driven this spread too high. It’s a tough ask to play on the road Monday night and again Sunday afternoon. The Packers’ 21st-ranked offense is not dynamic enough to be spotting so many points. The rivals’ first meeting this season resulted in a mere one-point win by the Pack. And its stifling of the Vikings’ offense requires an asterisk, given that Minnesota was playing without its top two running backs.