Letdowns are uncommon in the NFL. Here is a potential exception. San Francisco just staggered through two harrowingly tight games far from home: a loss at Baltimore, a win at New Orleans. Now comes Atlanta, which is better than its record (4-9) suggests. The Falcons’ three outright Ws since their bye have come by a combined 63 points. There were a pair of defeats, but one came against New Orleans. The 49ers have not covered in their last four games against sub-.500 foes. Take Atlanta.

This is an absolutely terrible spot for the 49ers, coming off intense showdown games versus the Ravens and Saints and looking ahead to key division matchups against the Rams and Seattle. The Falcons lost Calvin Ridley and Desmond Trufant to season-ending injuries, but the 49ers have several key injuries of their own (Dee Ford, Weston Richburg, Richard Sherman). Atlanta is playing hard for embattled coach Dan Quinn. Facing their former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, you can expect maximum effort from the Falcons. Even if they fall behind by 17, Matt Ryan can cover through the back door. Take the points.