It feels like everybody and their mother are on the Browns this week after seeing Cleveland's offense explode against Baltimore. That means it's a great time to go against the grain. Not only are the 49ers coming off a bye, but they have the 2nd-best defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The Niners pass rush will force Baker Mayfield to abandon the pocket early behind a Browns offensive line that still has plenty of problems.

There's a lot of value on the Browns. The 49ers are undefeated but this will be their toughest test to date. And they'll be without starting left tackle Joe Staley. Look for a game that goes down to the wire and grab the points.

A lot of the focus will be on the quarterbacks, but it should be on the running game of the Cleveland Browns. Nick Chubb has looked really good in consecutive weeks, and while the 49ers have a great run defense, they have feasted on the Steelers, Bucs and Bengals. All three have struggled to run the ball against anyone this season. The Browns can, and will, have success in that department against San Francisco.

San Francisco is coming out of a bye week plus one day. Be careful what you wish for, 49ers. Coach Kyle Shanahan has extended a bizarre streak in which the Niners have failed to cover six straight games off a bye. More broadly, they are on a 7-17 ATS drought at home, while Cleveland has covered four consecutive times away. One game does not restore the Browns to the Super Bowl discussion, but it’s a small step. San Francisco has built its 3-0 straight-up record on the backs of opponents (Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh) that are average at best.