The Browns have been impressive, particularly at home where they have won consecutive games, but this is not a team to me that has been completely turned around -- and I am a massive Baker Mayfield fan. The Chargers are not awful at 1 p.m. starts, and they're also not going all the way out to the East Coast where they are more susceptible to early-game letdowns. Not having lost California since Sept. 16 is a bit concerning, but Los Angeles should be able to win this outright. I'll take the extra point just in case.

With a few breaks, the Browns could be 5-0. Philip RIvers is a statue and Cleveland's pass rush, led by Myles Garrett, will force him into critical mistakes. Back the Browns.

After avoiding Cleveland for eons, the public seems to be making up for lost time and flocking to the Browns. How else to explain this skinny point spread with teams on different planes? L.A. ranks nine spots ahead of Cleveland in yards gained per game and a dozen better for yards allowed. The Browns struggle to put forth strong offensive and defensive efforts on the same day, as indicated by their last two scores: 45-42 and 12-9, the latter going nearly five quarters. The Chargers are accustomed to a hostile crowd. After all, they often confront one at home games.

Don't look now but the Cleveland Browns have a top-five defense and doing a great job forcing turnovers. The biggest defensive improvement has been limiting chunk plays, especially on screens. You have to figure with each passing week, Baker Mayfield and the passing game will get more comfortable. With that as the backdrop, I do like the Chargers' ability to overcome potential early roadblocks before figuring things out late. Lay the points with the Chargers.