The Cardinals have the league’s top-ranked defense and a top-10 offense, yet have just four wins to show for their efforts. It goes without saying Sunday’s game against the Redskins is a must-win for them to stand any chance of joining the NFC wild-card race. It wasn’t too long ago that Arizona was considered an ATS killer at home and the lines were inflated, but this is a discount against a Redskins club that has just one road win and could be in letdown spot after their Thanksgiving game against Dallas.

Washington has covered eight of its last nine games, while the Cardinals have dropped five straight ATS. So logically, this pick may seem a bit off, but there are reasons to like the Cardinals. The title card for this fight will be Washington's top-tier offense against Arizona's still-excellent defense, but the game will come down to David Johnson, quietly one of the NFL's best backs, against Washington's 32nd-ranked rush defense (per DVOA). The Cardinals need to win out to have any shot at the playoffs, and things could come down to a tiebreaker with these Redskins, so expect them to play like everything's on the line here.