The Nuggets are only 1-3 ATS at home and barely beat the Rockets there in their last game Saturday, pulling out a one-point win. Michael Porter Jr. (back) left that game early and has already been ruled out for this contest, which will rob the Nuggets of one of their most potent scorers. That could prove troublesome against a Heat team that has the fourth-best defensive rating in the league.

Let's go ahead and back Miami now because the Nuggets just ruled out Michael Porter Jr. with back trouble so this number might grow a point or two (I'm taking the ML to avoid a push on a possible one-point Miami win). Porter is having a terrible season but is still the team's second-most talented player behind Nikola Jokic. The Heat are healthy for the most part. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home.