Milwaukee will be without superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo on Monday due to oral surgery. Thus far in bubble action, the Bucks have been sub-par, with blown leads and inconsistent bench play being primary reasons. But as the regular season winds down, expect the Raptors' strong defense to lag. Grab the Bucks.

There are very few NBA players worth more than six points to the spread, but reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of them. Toronto has been solid despite the loss of Kawhi Leonard and Nick Nurse is one of the best coaches in the NBA. The Raptors' No. 2 defensive ranking makes them a reliable club to back. Take the Raptors plus the points in this very even game.

The model had the Bucks as 6-point favorites playing at full strength, but Milwaukee superstar and likely repeat NBA MVP winner Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play due to a toothache in a game that is meaningless with both teams locked into the East's top two playoff spots. Now, 59 percent of simulations have the Raptors winning outright if they play a full lineup. Toronto is 0-2 vs. Milwaukee this season so likely has a bit more motivation Monday.