Since the All-Star break, both of these teams have slowed down their offensive games and picked up the intensity on defense. The Spurs ranked 12th on offense, 10th on defense and 29th in pace while going Under in 16 of their last 21 games. The Nuggets ranked 22nd on offense, 7th on defense and 23rd in pace while going Under 21 of their last 28 games. Take the Under.

The Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home this season, including 25-16 ATS. The Spurs weren’t far behind them at 32-9 at home, but they were an abysmal 16-25 on the road. Only the Pistons had a worse record of any team to make the playoffs. The Nuggets won both games between these two teams that were played in Denver this year, including a 28-point victory less than two weeks ago. Look for the Nuggets to start off the series with a win and cover along the way.

The home team won all four meetings this season (2-2 ATS), but it was in the last meeting in Denver on April 3 when the Nuggets had the biggest blowout with a 113-85 win. The Nuggets proved to have the best home edge this season with an NBA-best 34-7 home record (25-16 ATS). Nuggets get the win and cover out of the gate.