We're taking the worst of a number that has flipped by a basket since Boston opened as a slight underdog and is now a short chalk. Even though this is less than ideal, the money is moving in the correct direction. The 76ers were fortunate to avoid a sweep and it's clear that, despite their edge in talent over Boston's injury-depleted roster, they are a bit away from the maturity needed to win in the postseason. The Celtics are well aware of the perils of letting Philadelphia extend the series -- this is why they will end it Wednesday.

I thought the 76ers would sweep the Celtics, I just didn't know it was going to be the final four games. The Sixers just need to break their maiden against the Celtics, losing the four regular-season games and then the first three games in this series. Tonight Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons will both play well over 40 minutes. Philly is still the better team evidenced by the low point spread but I still think the 76ers should be a 3-point favorite like they were in Games 1 and 2.

I trust Brad Stevens to have his guys ready for Game 5 and specifically expect the Celtics to do a much better job on the defensive glass. In Game 4, Philly racked up 16 offensive rebounds. Boston has covered 11 of its past 12 home games and is 8-1 ATS following a double-digit loss. Play the home dog as the Celtics end the series.