UFC 249: Justin Gaethje odds and betting history

Thankfully, live major professional sports returns to this country on Saturday night with an excellent UFC 249 card from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla. It's headlined by an interim lightweight title bout between No. 1-ranked Tony Ferguson and No. 4 Justin Gaethje. Let's break down William Hill moneyline odds on the 31-year-old American Gaethje for the fight and his recent betting history.

• Odds to win vs. Ferguson: +155
• Gaethje by unanimous decision: +1200
• Gaethje by split/majority decision: +2000
• Gaethje by any decision: +900
• Gaethje by KO/TKO/DQ: +175
• Gaethje by submission: +2000
• Gaethje to win in Round 1: +350
• Gaethje to win in Round 2: +600
• Gaethje to win in Round 3: +1400
• Gaethje to win in Round 4: +2000
• Gaethje to win in Round 5: +2500
• Draw +5000
• Total rounds: Over-Under 2.5 (Under -150 favorite)

Gaethje is a replacement for lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who had to pull out from the originally scheduled date of UFC 249 last month because of a coronavirus lockdown in his native Russia. Khabib is expected to fight Saturday's winner later this fall.

If two fighters haven't met in the Octagon previously, the second-best way to handicap MMA is common opponents. That's quite easy for this bout because both guys come off wins over Donald Cerrone. Gaethje was a -225 favorite against him last September at UFC Fight Night 158 and won by first-round TKO (punches). The 36-year-old Ferguson was -240 vs. Cerrone at UFC 238 in June 2019 and won by second-round TKO (doctor stoppage).

A whopping 88 percent of Gaethje's wins (18) are by KO or TKO. He hasn't gone to the judges since a split decision win over Melvin Guillard in the WSOF organization in November 2014. Gaethje has just one submission victory and it was vs. Sam Young in 2012. Meanwhile, both of Gaethje's losses are by KO/TKO: To Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez.

The last time "the Highlight" was an underdog was March 2019 when he was -105 vs. Edson Barboza and won via first-round knockout (punch). Gaethe hasn't been an approximate +155 underdog as he is here in any bouts dating to 2013.

Even though Gaethje and Ferguson are both 5-foot-11, Ferguson has about a six-inch reach advantage. 

Who wins Ferguson vs. Gaethje? And how exactly does each fight at UFC 249 end? Get detailed picks on every UFC 249 fight, all from elite MMA expert Kyle Marley, who's up almost $19,000, and find out.