The Philadelphia Phillies were the betting favorites to land Los Angeles Dodgers All-Star shortstop Trea Turner in free agency and they've done just that today. Turner has reportedly signed an 11-year, $300 million contract to be reunited with former Washington Nationals teammate and friend Bryce Harper, although Harper is expected to miss the first half of the 2023 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. The Phillies' odds to win next year's World Series improved from +1600 to +1200 at BetMGM with the Turner addition.
The Phillies always made a lot of sense as Turner reportedly wanted to return to the East Coast -- Turner and his wife are both from Florida and attended school at North Carolina State -- and the team declined its $17 million option on Jean Segura this offseason. The Turner signing allows the Phillies to move Bryson Stott, who showed promise as a rookie this year at shortstop, to second base. A two-time All-Star, Turner batted .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs, 100 RBI and 27 stolen bases with the Dodgers in 2022.
Since becoming a full-time starter with the Nationals in 2018, Turner is the only player in baseball with more than 90 homers and 140 stolen bases. He helped the Nationals win their first World Series in franchise history in '19. Turner led the majors in hits in 2020 and '21 (he won the NL batting title in 2021). He has posted the second-most WAR in baseball since 2019 at 20.0 -- trailing only Aaron Judge's 22.3. Turner's contract includes a full no-trade clause.
The SportsLine Projection Model improved the Phillies' 2023 projected win total from 89.6 to 90.1 with Turner now in the fold. However, the model still favors Atlanta to win the NL East and under the assumption that Dansby Swanson re-signs with the Braves. Harper missing a chunk of the season also puts a dent into the Phillies' overall prospects.
This signing could open the floodgates on the free-agent shortstop market with Swanson, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts still out there. The Dodgers may opt to sign one of those three now. The Chicago Cubs also are expected to walk away with a member of that group.
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