Dodgers vs. Reds Tuesday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Tony Gonsolin somehow still longer shot to win NL Cy Young Award

The best pitcher in the National League is on the mound for the Dodgers in Cincinnati on Tuesday and it's not likely whom you think.
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Entering this season, Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin wasn't even an option to bet on the National League Cy Young Award at Caesars Sportsbook. When the book finally listed him in mid-May, Gonsolin was a +7500 long shot. The 28-year-old has been easily the best pitcher in the NL so far, if not the majors, yet he's still +2000. Strange, but clearly oddsmakers remain skeptical. Gonsolin is on the mound Tuesday as Los Angeles opens a series in Cincinnati. The Dodgers are -165. (See tickets at StubHub)

Gonsolin debuted in the majors in 2019 with the Dodgers and had just 12 career wins entering this season. He was never truly a full-time starter but bounced back-and-forth from the bullpen depending on injuries elsewhere in the rotation. He's not going back to the pen now as Gonsolin is 8-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 12 starts.

The wins, ERA and WHIP lead are first in the majors, and the ERA is the third-best in Dodgers history through a pitcher's first 12 starts of a season behind Don Drysdale's 1.33 in 1968 and Hyun-Jin Ryu's 1.35 in 2019. Both of them had at least one loss. Neither of them won the Cy Young.

Gonsolin, a ninth-round pick in the 2016 draft, hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any outing yet. He's 3-0 in June with a 0.49 ERA. I suppose if one wanted to quibble: Gonsolin is "only" 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA on the road this year, compared to 5-0 with a 0.81 ERA at home.

This will be his fourth career game against the Reds and he's 0-0 with a 4.26 ERA in 6.1 innings. Gonsolin hasn't been all that profitable at +$180 if you bet $100 on every game he has started, simply because Los Angeles has been such a big favorite and has ended up losing three of his starts.

Tyler Mahle (2-5, 4.46 ERA) starts for the Reds. He was rocked at Dodger Stadium on April 17, allowing seven runs over 3.2 innings of a 9-1 loss. Mahle actually has been much better on the road overall (2-2, 3.78 ERA) than at home (0-3, 5.01 ERA).

The Dodgers have won six straight overall in the series and their .607 all-time winning percentage at Great American Ball Park (37-24) is the second-best by any NL team behind the Mets (.632, 36-21). L.A. is without MVP candidate Mookie Betts, who landed on the injured list over the weekend.

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