2022 MLB win totals odds, trends: Minnesota Twins, thanks to Carlos Correa and Sonny Gray, have had biggest gain this spring
No MLB team's season win total has jumped more this spring than the Minnesota Twins.
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Earlier this week, we wrote about the tanking Oakland A's having seen their over/under betting win total at Caesars Sportsbook plummet from 78.5 to 68.5 for the 2022 MLB regular season because the A's are trading away their best players. Another small-market team, the Minnesota Twins, is going all-in this season with a few additions and the Twins have had the biggest win total increase at the book from an open of 74.5 to 82.5.
Minnesota reached the playoffs in both 2019 & '20 but fell apart last season with a 73-89 record, last in the AL Central. Injuries didn't help, and the pitching staff was a disaster in 2021 with a collective 4.83 ERA, 26th in the majors. Ace Jose Berrios was traded midseason and Kenta Maeda, so good in 2020, struggled before eventually needing Tommy John surgery.
Most around baseball thought the penny-pinching Twins would start a rebuild this offseason considering they gave up Berrios, but no. They acquired a potential new No. 1 atop the rotation in Sonny Gray from the tanking Cincinnati Reds. While Gray was a bit inconsistent in 2021, over the course of the last three seasons, he has posted a 136 ERA+ and a 3.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 68 starts. Gray should make his regular-season debut on Saturday vs. Seattle.
Before the lockout, the team also locked up center fielder Byron Buxton to a seven-year, $100 million extension. He has had trouble staying healthy and was limited to 61 games last year but had a career-best 1.005 OPS, adding 19 home runs and nine steals. Buxton, a former No. 1 overall prospect, is a plus defender.
The move that shocked other team executives, though, was Minnesota somehow landing the top free agent on the market in former Astros All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa on a very team-friendly three-year, $105 million deal. Just for a point of comparison, Correa turned down 10 years and $275 million before the lockout with the Tigers. It marked the biggest commitment to a free agent in Twins history. Why would Correa take it? Because he can opt-out after one year and re-enter free agency next winter.
The Twins haven't won a playoff game since 2004 or a playoff series since 2002. Correa has played in 16 playoff series as part of his seven-year MLB career, while the Twins as a franchise have appeared in 17 playoff series since relocating to Minnesota in 1961. Correa was the biggest reason the Twins' win total jumped.
"It's not just [Carlos] Correa, I think [Byron] Buxton is primed for a big year and the Sonny Gray addition was a good one," said Eric Biggio, Head Baseball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. "The lineup is still really solid 1-9, but still some question marks with the starting pitching. That'll be the key for whether they're an 80-win team or end up in the mid-70s. The expectations for the Twins were very high, and then they just cratered. I think they're slated for a bounce-back year, and I have them rated higher than the Guardians, Royals and Tigers."
The rotation is definitely a question mark as behind Gray are rookie Joe Ryan, second-year Bailey Ober and reclamation projects Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. Minnesota also landed former All-Star catcher Gary Sanchez from the Yankees, but it cost former AL MVP Josh Donaldson. The Twins were to open at home vs. Seattle on Thursday but that already has been postponed to Friday due to weather.
The Phillies (82.5 to 86.5) and Dodgers (95.5 to 98.5) join the Twins as the only other teams to have had their win total increase by at least three.
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