The first two games of the series went over the total. These two have played three times in New York this season, with two of three going under the total in much warmer weather. Both teams are hitting .200 with a similar OPS', in the .630s, this postseason. Walker Buehler owns a 6.53 road ERA while Luis Severino owns a 2.96 home ERA. Each lineup can produce runs quickly, but with the cold weather, nine MPH winds and possible wind gusts of 17 to 20 MPH during the game, there’s a reason this total continues to creep lower.

Colder weather and winds blowing in should make scoring tougher and we'll need a 9th run to beat us. The Dodgers play their first game on the east coast in a month and enjoyed nice weather in California for their playoff games thus far, so a 50 degree night in the Big Apple is a switch up. Walker Buehler has been tabbed as an awful pitcher and despite giving up lots of hard contact in his last start, all six of his runs were allowed in the same inning, where errors and bad defensive plays burned him. Luis Severino had a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this year and both bullpens should have all of their top guys available. At 8 I'll take the under.

There's an issue for the Dodgers...Shohei Ohtani. We are in the midst of finding out how far the Blue can progress without Ohtani pulling his weight. That's out of the ordinary, but in the playoffs, he's only batting .222, and without an extra-base hit since Game One of the LDS. For New York, Luis Severino hasn't been the Mets' most effective pitcher, but when he starts, he's usually good for at least six innings of work (as in six of his last seven starts). He'll get bullpen relief in the later innings, but we suspect the Mets get there in better shape than LA because Walker Buehler has a 5.61 ERA in his last nine starts. Play Mets on Money Line

The Dodgers have gone over nine of their last 10 games with Walker Buehler pitching and the one game they didn't go over would have been if it were 7.5 like this game. Buehler just creates overs because everybody likes hitting him. The Dodgers win half of his games but he only gets credit for one win. He gave up six runs in his last start to the Padres. The Dodgers and Mets have gone over their last three meetings. The Mets have gone over seven of their last nine. Luis Severino has gone over four of his last five starts and hasn’t given up less than three runs in those starts. That's half the battle right there. Over is the play.

The Polar Bear is locked in, there is a Metropolitan love fest going on with him in his walk year and he is feeding off it all. He's back home, he's redhot and he's facing one of the worst starters in the entire postseason and a guy who can't compete on the road (10 HR allowed in 30 1/3 IP on road). Oh, and Alonso has 4 HR and 17 TB in 5 G vs Buehler (14 PA).

There's a big difference in the quality of starting pitcher, this Mets team really feeds off the crowd at home, they have been scoring runs early for weeks now and the Dodgers have played just three games outside of Southern California since Sept. 19, which is also the last time they had a real road trip. Weather and climate will loom large here. Even if Dave Roberts has a super quick hook here, I think Buehler gets hit first time through the order. Including playoffs, Buehler has allowed 32 ER in the 1st 2 Innings (34 IP) for an 8.47 ERA. He's allowed 10 HR in those 34 IP. And Frankie Lindor, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos are locked in with their longball swings. Hmm.

The Mets have been on the road a ton, but they love playing at home, and I love them in this spot against a bad starting pitcher. Mets are 15-3 in last 18 at home, facing almost exclusively playoff teams. Luis Severino had a 2.96 ERA at home vs 5.50 on the road, and he was still solid in two road playoff starts. Walker Buehler got destroyed by the Pades (7 H and 6 ER in 5 IP) and had a 6.53 road ERA in regular season, allowing 10 HR, 16 W and a .293 avg in 30 1/3 IP. Mets top bats are hot. This could get out of hand quickly.

I don't really understand why the Mets are getting +1 on Wednesday when clearly the starting pitching matchup favors them with Luis Severino (7-2, 2.96 ERA at home this year) opposed by Walker Buehler (6.53 road ERA during RS and rocked in San Diego in the NLDS). It's the Dodgers' first game in the Eastern Time Zone in about a month. Think the mystique of that once-dominant L.A. bullpen was blown up in the Game 2 loss.