Five of the last seen game between these two have gone over the total. Michael King owns a 1.57 ERA in September coming into the playoffs and most recently shut out the Dodgers two starts ago. Walker Buehler owns a 6.53 road ERA and held Los Angeles to one run in five innings in his most recent start. Buehler has only allowed three earned runs in his last 11 innings on the road and King has been excellent down the stretch. After everything that occurred in game two, the public will be expecting more fireworks, so we’ll take the contrarian route.

The Dodgers are not used to teams who don't cower in front of them, and the Padres certainly do not after Sunday's 10-2 romp. Confident after their playoff win in this round two years ago, and winning the season series, San Diego now bosses this matchup. Especially, it appears, in tonight's Game 3, with ex-Yankee reliever Michael King now a fixture in the San Diego rotation, after some brilliant work across the past three months, with an ERA of 1.89 since the beginning of July. Meanwhile, Dodger pitching is depleted, and not much help coming lately from Walker Buehler, who has been less than scintillating since being reactivated in mid-August, with a 4.93 ERA in eight starts. Play Padres on Run Line (-1)

We've had a major shift in price regarding Michael King facing the Dodgers. In April he was plus-187 against the Dodgers and won, in May he was plus-159 against Tyler Glasnow and the Dodgers and won, in September he was plus-107 against Walker Bueller and won. Now he's minus-160 against Bueller. I guess that's what happens when you have two straight games of not allowing an earned run including one against the Dodgers. His last game against the Braves he went seven innings and struck out 12, perhaps his best performance of the year. Now he's set for the Padres against the Dodgers in the playoffs. Padres win.

Can the Friars cover here? Sure. But at home you probably lose the bottom of the 9th and the Dodgers are no slouches, so let's just play to win. Walker Buehler stinks and it will be a short hook for him. Padres have far better starter and better pen and better lineup and are the hotter team. Fernando Tatis owns Buehler and Padres finished the season winning more than 20 of their final 30 home games. They don't fear the Dodgers and are the more intense team in what's becoming a potential beanball mini-series. After letting Dodgers back in Game 1, expect a killer instinct from the Friars tonight.

Holding no fear of the Dodgers, the Padres turned Chavez Ravine into a shooting gallery on Sunday when when banging out six homers in their 10-2 win. The bad news for LA is its pitching staff, or what's left of it, looks like it could be in more trouble tonight. That's because Walker Buehler, fighting back from injury, hasn't been the same this season, and certainly not since being reactivated in mid-August, posting a 4.93 ERA in his eight starts since. Don't expect the Dodgers to do a lot of damage against impressive Padres starter Michael King, but we absolutely believe the big San Diego bats to rock Buehler and the LA bullpen as was the case in Game 2. Play Dodgers-Padres "Over"

If Freddie Freeman can't go Tuesday for the Dodgers, this certainly would go up -- that's why we'll play it early. I'm sure the former NL MVP tries to tough it out through that ankle issue, but it obviously may affect his baserunning and defense at first base. I like the Padres regardless at home behind Michael King but would like it that much more if no Freddie. It's almost sad watching Walker Buehler pitch for the Dodgers these days because he had such a bright future before major injuries wrecked him a la Kerry Wood/Mark Prior.