The reason the Guardians are underdogs is that presumptive Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is starting for the Tigers. Everything else points to the Guardians, though, especially with their stellar bullpen having only pitched in one game in the last week. They'll hold the Tigers down again and if they have to score late to win, so be it. Guardians win here and we get plus money.

Prices like -125 or thereabouts look good value these days with the Tigers' Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA). Skubal was scorching down the stretch, posting a 1.52 ERA in four September starts. All before Game One vs. the Astros in the wild card, when he pitched six flawless innings, allowing just 4 hits with no runs, in a 3-1 Tigers win. Since early August, Detroit has won in 8 of Skubal's ten starts, and he got a win in his only start vs. the Guardians back on July 22, allowing just one run in 7 IP of an 8-2 win. Meanwhile, ex-Tiger Matthew Boyd's recent starts have been shaky for Cleveland, and he's not lasting beyond four innings lately. Play Tigers on Money Line

Tarik Skubal has 13 starts following a Tiger's loss and they are 9-4 in those games. The probable Cy Young winner must do it again as the Tigers are down 0-1 in the series. Cleveland is now up 8-6 on a season series. The Tigers need to do what they didn't do in game one: give Cleveland a big lead and let the bullpen close with the lead. It was too easy for Cleveland and their textbook bullpen style. Cleveland has won three straight over Detroit. The best thing to note is that Skubal has beaten Cleveland three straight times. Former Tiger Matthew Boyd spent eight seasons with the Tigers but never made the playoffs until now with Cleveland. He'll pitch for five innings. Tigers.

Detroit ace and Cy Young lock Tarik Skubal shut out the Rays over seven innings in his final regular-season start and then blanked the Astros over six in his playoff debut last week. The left-hander is 2-0 over his past four starts against the Guardians with a 1.80 ERA. Former Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd was very good in his eight starts off Tommy John surgery but also hasn't pitched since Sept. 21.