The Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez matchup means it's very likely to be low-scoring heading to the late innings. Both are stellar right now. And I know the Astros have the bigger names, but the Tigers' bullpen is more reliable. I'm going with the value here.

Don't love fading AL Cy Young lock Tarik Skubal but Houston's Framber Valdez has been just as dominant in recent weeks. If playoff experience means anything, the Astros and Valdez have tons of it and Skubal and the Tigers none. Skubal's road splits were also significantly worse. But really I'm burying the lead: Yordan Alvarez is in the Astros lineup. Probably don't play this if not.

It's an amazing pitching matchup in Game 1 with Cy Young favorite Tarik Skubal facing Houston's Framber Valdez. Since he started using his curveball more, Valdez has gone 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 16 starts. He has a 1.65 ERA since the start of August, and he's facing a below-average lineup with several left-handed bats. It's unclear whether Yordan Alvarez (knee) is playing, but either way I'm going Under in the first five innings.

"Team du jour" right now seems the Tigers after their improbable run across the last two months to make it to the playoffs. But if playoff experience means anything it's advantage to the postseason-savvy Astros. The Tigers' Tarik Skubal might be the favorite for the AL Cy Young but he didn't have the greatest success this season vs. the Astros, with a 4.26 ERA in two starts. He was knocked pretty good his one start at Minute Maid Park, too, allowing 4 runs and 6 hits in 6 1/3 IP of a 4-0 loss on June 14. Meanwhile, note the Astros have won 14 of the last 16 starts made by Framber Valdez (1.65 ERA since start of August). Play Astros on Run Line