Garrett Cole. Garrett Cole. Garrett Cole. Add in the fact that the Yankees owe Mets won, and the Met starter and bullpen is highly questionable and I will take the Yanks first five.

On Tuesday, Aaron Judge went 0-for-1 with four walks in the Yankees' 3-2 loss. Sean Manaea has a hard-hit rate of 41.1% (30th percentile) and an average exit velocity of 89.2 MPH (40th percentile). Aaron Judge's hard-hit rate is 60.2% (100th percentile), and his average exit velocity is 96.3 MPH (100th percentile). Aaron Judge has a .462 batting average and a .923 slugging percentage in 13 career at-bats against Manaea. Juan Soto criticized the entire offense except for Judge, so I expect the 2022 AL MVP to have a big game.

The way the Yankees are hitting outside of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, I can't justify taking them around -170 on the moneyline even behind Gerrit Cole, who has been excellent in B2B starts. But I also think the Bombers will be extra motivated to avoid the season sweep in the Subway Series. The Mets way well walk Judge all night again as he hammers Mets starter Sean Manaea -- who comes off one of his worst outings of the year. We push, we push but like this price much better. Rather proud of myself for being open to a push instead of playing at a big shaky ML number. Getting the option of -1 instead of only -1.5 changes a lot.