The Pirates are resting their top starters out of the break for their big series with the Cardinals, perhaps punting on this series with the vaunted Phillies. This is a major pitching advantage for the Phillies, who are also the superior hitting team. Phils are 15-4 when Aaron Nola starts, with 11 wins by 2+ runs. Phils are 7-1 in his road starts, with 6 by 2+ runs. Pirates are 2-10 in the last 12 starts made by Martin Perez.

Guess I get not starting Paul Skenes right out of the break for the Bucs as you want to manage his innings a little, but why not Mitch Keller? Instead, it's apparently veteran journeyman Martin Perez (1-5, 5.15 ERA) -- listed pitcher for sure on him. Sometimes managers overthink things. A fair amount of Phillies have good splits off him. Philly pitcher Aaron Nola is 6-1 with a 3.33 ERA on the road and is working on five straight quality starts overall.