The Chicago Cubs nearly blew a 5-0 lead yesterday, but their bullpen was able to hold for a close 6-5 win. A positive to yesterday is that both Patrick Wisdom and Nico Hoerner hit their first home runs of the season. The market has over priced this on the Brewers side with the fact that Milwaukee has won all six of Freddy Peralta’s start this season, and have an MLB best 13-5 road record. Grab the home underdog value on the Cubs

This is a big price to pay in this prop, but I think it's worth it. Peralta would've topped this number in five of six starts had he not been prematurely ejected in his last outing just one out shy after only 66 pitches, and in the one outlier he allowed five runs while walking five. I don't see a start like that today against a Cubs lineup that is much worse against righties with the wind blowing in at Wrigley. Plus, the Brewers only got three innings from their starter yesterday so they'll be counting on length from their ace. I expect six innings from Peralta in this matchup.