We're going to ride Cleveland's five game win streak against the Red Sox who they've beat four of five this season. Cleveland is 17-6 this season for a profit of plus 1135. Cooper Criswell started on the 13th against the Angels and went four innings and allowed two runs. Carlos Carrasco has allowed four runs in his last three starts. The Cleveland bullpen is number two in ERA. Cleveland to win.

He gets a chance to swing for the fences against a righty who isn't special in the middle of what might be the most improved lineup in baseball (especially against non-elite starters). Naylor is oozing confidence and doesn't get cheating in his hacks. Looking like a chilly night in CLE, though, so I will lean into RBI over HR. Has 8 driven in last 7 games, 15 in last 15 and one in 1 career look at tonight's starter.

We can quibble about the teams the Guardians have faced, but not their results. They lead MLB in run differential, they are grinding ABs and few orgs are better at developing starting pitching. They are also 7-3 at home, get a BoSox spot starter and have a solid veteran starter on the bump against a team that CLE shutout once already and has out-scored 25-14 in winning 4 of 5 meetings. BOS 3-8 in last 11 AL games. Horrible fielding team gives away outs, and has a suspect pen that might be called on to cover a lot of outs tonight