I’m betting on the Phillies in game one against the Marlins. Philadelphia has a huge edge in experience, let alone talentwise with a better offensive team, better starting pitching and a better bullpen. It takes great pitching and raw power offensively to win in the playoffs. The Phillies have both! The Phillies also feast on left-handed pitching and will face Jesus Luzardo in game one, who pitchers far better at pitcher friendly Marlins Park than he does on the road.

The Marlins are the worst team in the playoffs and I don't care if that sounds harsh. They earned it but that doesn't mean they necessarily "belong." The Phillies are far superior and are better built for the playoffs than the regular season. I'm expecting the Phillies' offense to jump on Jesus Luzardo the second time through the order, if not sooner. I'll call a big Trea Turner game. I love the Phillies here, so a run line play (-1.5, +140) gets us better odds.

Jesus Luzardo has some success vs. the Phillies this season, but simply a different thing entirely pitching in Philadelphia in the playoffs and Luzardo has very brief playoff experience. The Phils obviously have plenty and start Zack Wheeler, who is 10-4 with a 2.48 ERA in 22 career starts against the Marlins and is a playoff vet. This year, he led all pitchers in baseball with 6 fWAR and was fourth with a 3.18 xERA. I'm assuming Luis Arraez will play for Miami even though he barely did the final two weeks but if he doesn't may bet more than one unit here.