Go figure. The Yankees got an outstanding outing from Gerrit Cole yesterday, only to be walked off in extras. They'll send Nestor Cortes to the hill today to try to grab a series win, which you know they desperately want after all the extracurricular nonsense that's happened with the Blue Jays. Toronto counters with Jose Berrios, who is still struggling to regain his Minnesota form. This has New York written all over it. The Yankees are covering in 72% of my model's simulations.

Jumping on this Thursday night line here at the open. I have the Yankees winning 52 percent of sims here with Cortes vs. Berrios which means our moneyline price should be closer to -108. Vlad Guerrero is day-to-day and currently not playing in Wednesday's game. This would be a meaningful loss to the Blue Jays against left-handed pitching. Expected batted ball data suggests Nestor Cortes has been a little unlucky when you see his fastball wOBA of .321 is significantly higher than the expected number of .265. On the other side Jose Berrios has been one of the lucky ones so far where his actual numbers are much better than the expected numbers. Especially on his fastball where the already poor .370 should be much closer to .440.