The Cardinals aren't this bad. Sure, the pitching staff is sporting an ugly ERA north of 5, but that'll get better. The lineup is certainly hitting the snot out of the ball and should present a serious challenge for Brandon Woodruff. Jack Flaherty isn't going to issue a million walks again. This has all the makings of a highly entertaining game, and one the Cardinals should stay competitive in. St. Louis is covering in 70% of my model's simulations.

Feels like good value price-wise as I believe the Cardinals are the better team offensively by quite a bit, and Jack Flaherty is on the mound. Maybe he's finally healthy as Flaherty shut out a great Jays lineup over five in his season debut. Understand why the Brewers are favorites at home behind Brandon Woodruff, but I consider this a near 50-50 proposition -- the SL Model has STL winning -- so will take the +1.5.