The Rays have star young shortstop Wander Franco back in the lineup from a long IL stint -- which swayed me to make this pick -- while the Yankees' lineup remains Aaron Judge and a bunch of flotsam due to injuries and Jose Trevino landing on the paternity list. The starting pitching matchup also favors Tampa with Drew Rasmussen, who hasn't allowed more than two ER since the break, against Frankie Montas. The Yanks have played three games in the past two days so their bullpen is a bit taxed. The Rays were off Thursday. The AL East race is on with a Rays victory.

Drew Rasmussen is coming off the paternity list and he has a 1.85 ERA in his last 7 starts. Frankie Montas allowed just 1 hit in 5 IP against the Rays last turn. However, the Rays are 19-7 in the last 30 days while the Yankees are 12-15. The Rays bullpen is ranked 3rd in the last 30 days while the Yankees are ranked 6th, but the Rays have a massive bullpen advantage with an off day yesterday while the Yankees had a doubleheader recently. I expect Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup tonight after pinch hitting yesterday, but the Yankees still have the second worst wOBA in the league in the last 30 days. Take the red hot Rays to close the division lead.