Bit of a risky number against a good Phillies team, but there's essentially no way that Kyle Schwarber plays Friday as he left Thursday's game with a calf strain (he said as much about Friday). Huge loss as Schwarber leads the National League with 34 home runs on the season and is the club's leadoff hitter and main lefty power threat. He's also a rare Phillies player with good splits against the Mets' Max Scherzer, who has been fantastic since returning from injury. New York was also off Thursday so a full bullpen ready behind him. I expect this to be -200 or a bit higher by first pitch -- it's -205 at FanDuel as I write this.

My numbers see the Phillies winning outright more than half the time Friday against the Mets, providing a massive overlay on the juicy underdog. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is 6-1 with a 2.87 ERA in nine road starts this season. Mets ace Max Scherzer has just a 4.24 ERA in three starts against Philadelphia this year. He has given up 20 hits and 8 earned runs in 17 innings.