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Thu 07/21 | 5:10 PM UTC | Miami
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Texas Rangers 67-94, -1948 ML
TEX +1.5-205
TEX +115
Over 6.5-115
Miami Marlins 68-93, -2658 ML
MIA -1.5+170
MIA -135
Under 6.5-105

Expert Picks

MLB | Texas 8 @ Miami 0 | 07/21 | 5:10 PM UTC

Miami -115

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I was on the fence for this game as I don't really trust the Miami offense without the injured Jazz Chisholm, but at least both Jorge Soler and Garrett Cooper returned from injury ahead of the All-Star break. In a major surprise, the Rangers are resting All-Star shortstop Corey Seager, who leads the team in homers (22) and RBIs (52). Could be that because Texas visits Oakland on Friday that Seager just stayed in California following the All-Star Game. (That's tough travel, from Texas to Miami to California -- the Rangers may simply mentally punt on this game.) The Under might not be bad here (although it just dropped from 7, which I was OK with, to 6.5, which I'm not) as Texas pitcher Jon Gray has allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven straight starts, but he also hasn't been as good away overall, and Miami's Pablo Lopez has a 2.35 ERA at home -- so we have to back the Fish on the cheap ML.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+6018 368-212-1 IN LAST 581 MLB PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 TEX ML PICKS
+491 13-6 IN LAST 19 MIA ML PICKS

Season Splits

67-94, -1948 ML
68-93, -2658 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
46%
42-49, -419
43-49, -941
46%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
47%
21-23, +108
22-23, -617
48%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
46%
27-31, +309
25-16, +182
61%
When Line was -101 to +129
MONEY LINE
When Line was -150 to -120
62%
18-11, +976
12-6, +289
66%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
48%
16-17, +362
18-13, -64
58%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
47%
11-12, +78
22-14, +266
61%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
50%
20-20, -42
30-19, +589
61%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
38%
5-8, -248
5-8, -384
38%
vs MIA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TEX
100%
1-0, +114
0-1, -100
0%
when Jon Gray starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Pablo Lopez starts
58%
10-7, +314
11-8, +204
57%